Abstract: Taking Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China as an example, CLUE-S model was used to simulate its urban sprawl in 2020. An evaluation system was established based on indicators from speed, strength, morphology, social economic benefits and ecological benefits of urban sprawl. By using SOFM network, the authors zoned the region and evaluated the urban sprawl for each zone. Main conclusions include that 1) Shenzhen can be divided into four regions according to future (2020) urban sprawl, i.e. the highly urbanized zone, the developing zone, the potential zone and the ecology priority zone, and therefore reasonable adjustments of development strategy need to be made; 2) by 2020, the overall quality of urban sprawl in Shenzhen will be high according to current trend, however, problems such as the low efficiency of land use and the incoordination of social-economic and ecological benefits still exist; 3) based on CLUE-S and SOFM, combined with urban sprawl comprehensive evaluation index system, the future urban sprawl can be predicted and analyzed effectively.

Key words: urban sprawl, CLUE-S, SOFM, zoning, Shenzhen

摘要： 以深圳市为研究对象, 基于CLUE-S模型, 模拟深圳市2020年城市扩展格局, 然后依据扩展速度强度、形态结构、社会经济效益和生态效益4个方面的指标建立城市扩展综合效益评价体系, 利用自组织特征映射网络(SOFM)对深圳市城市扩展进行分区评价。主要结论如下: 1) 未来(2020 年)深圳市城市扩展状况可 划分为4个区域(高度城市化区、经济增长区、城市扩展潜力区和生态优先区), 各区需针对自身特点合理调整发展战略; 2) 按照目前的发展趋势, 到2020年, 深圳市城市扩展综合效益较高, 但也存在社会经济效益和生态效益不能兼顾与土地利用效率不够高等问题; 3) 基于CLUE-S模型和SOFM网络, 结合城市扩展综合效益评价体系, 可以实现对未来城市扩展状况的预测和分析。

关键词: 城市扩展, CLUE-S, SOFM, 分区, 深圳市