Abstract: The authors introduce the development of relative researches on land use hydrological effects, and explore the sources of uncertainty of current studies. Generally, current researches, in the aspect of contents, focus on more kinds of land use forms in variable scales. Furthermore, they progress to analyze the impacts of land use allocation and distinguish the impacts between land use and climate change. As for the methods, physical-based distributed hydrological model and scenario analysis are widely used in current researches. Meanwhile, the land use/cover change models such as CA and CLUEs are employed by more and more researches. On the trajectory to modeling the complexity of linkage between land use and water resource, current researches are confronted with an increasing uncertainty so that it would be critical to quantify the uncertainty. What’s more, the potential contradiction between the objectives of land use planning and water resources management and the feedback of water resources to land use changes in the long run are worthy to be taken into consideration.

Key words: climate change, physical-based distributed hydrological model, scenario analysis, uncertainty, land use changes, water resources

摘要： 通过梳理现阶段相关研究成果, 分析土地利用对水资源影响研究在内容和方法层面的发展, 并对研究中存在的不确定性来源进行分析。在内容方面, 现有研究关注的用地类型更为全面, 尺度更加多样, 更加关注土地利用变化空间分布的影响, 强调土地利用与气候变化对水资源影响的区别与联系。在技术方面, 情景分析和分布式水文模型应用十分广泛, 土地利用变化模型也逐步为更多的研究所采用。随着研究向复杂化和模型化发展, 研究中存在的不确定性有所增加, 不确定性的量化对于研究的深入发展十分必要。除此之外, 分析土地利用规划与水资源管理目标之间的潜在冲突以及在情景构建中考虑水资源变化对土地利用的制约, 也应当在未来研究中有所体现。

关键词: 分布式水文模型, 情景分析, 不确定性, 土地利用变化, 水资源, 气候变化