Abstract: The term “risk” here mainly refers to the possible impacts of future climate change on food crops supply-demand balance. Based on the simulated results of food crops production under scenario B2 of climate change in RCMCA (regional crop model for Chinese agriculture), this study developed the food crops consumption scenario and set the criteria on food crops risks under climate change. It also analyzed the future variation in food crops supply and demand to determine the effect of climate change on food crops security in the short, medium and long terms at the county scale with the support of GIS. The results show that the climate change will hinder the food crops supply in general. With higher living standard, the gap between food crops supply and demand will be enlarged in the future, resulting in the increase of risk. The highest may occur in the medium term, the lowest in the near future, and the medium in the far future. Particularly in the medium term, 66.99% of the counties in China will face risks. Among them, 29.5%, occupying the largest area, will be with high and moderate risks; in the short-term, however, the situation will be easier, i.e. 25.54% counties in moderate (14.82%) and high risks (10.72%). Moreover, counties with high risks are distributed mainly in Huang-Huai-Hai Region, Loess Plateau, Southwest China, and Eastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region. The areas with lower risks are in Northeast Region, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and areas along the Great Wall.

Key words: climate change, risk in food crops supply-demand balance, China

摘要： “粮食供需平衡风险”定义为未来气候变化对我国粮食供需的影响程度。基于IPCC 排放情景特别报告(SRES)中B2情景气候条件下的我国粮食生产模拟结果, 构建该框架下我国粮食消费分析情景, 最终建立以自给粮食供应程度为核心的粮食供需平衡风险标准。借助GIS空间分析技术, 探讨县域尺度上近期、中期和远期的气候变化将会给我国粮食供需平衡带来怎样的风险局面。结果表明气候变化将会在一定程度上加剧我国的粮食供需平衡形势。3个时段内, 粮食供需风险局面严峻形势由高到低排序: 中期>远期>近期。具体地, 中期面临的供需风险的县市比例高达66.99%, 其中中风险和高风险区域范围最广, 两者所占比例高达29.5%; 近期风险形势相对较为缓和, 上述比例降低到25.54%, 其中高风险县市比例较低约为10.72%, 中风险约为14.82%; 在空间格局上, 黄淮海区、黄土高原区、西南区以及青藏区的东缘面临的风险形势相对较为严峻, 东北区、甘新区以及内蒙及长城沿线区则相对较为良好。

关键词: 气候变化, 粮食供需平衡风险, 中国