Abstract: In order to avoid some shortages of traditional ecological footprint model, the authors proposed an integrated model by using emergy theory, which is named as Emergy-Ecological Footprint Integrated Model. In ecological carrying capacity calculation, the proposed model adds the carrying capacity of actual product output and virtual product supply based on material input-output theory and people ’s innovation. In ecological footprint calculation, the proposed model considers waste ecological footprint into evaluation system. Finally, the proposed model is applied in Tianjin eco-city evaluation from 2001 to 2008. The calculating result shows that the ecological carrying capacity is higher than ecological footprint, and ecological surplus is in rising tendency which expresses that Tianj in is in sustainable state.

Key words: emergy analysis, ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus and deficiency analysis

摘要： 针对传统生态足迹模型在理论上的缺陷, 从能值分析的角度对其进行了改进, 提出了能值-生态足迹整合模型。该模型在生态承载力的计算中, 基于物质的投入产出和人的能动性, 融入了实体产品产出的生态承载力和虚拟产品供给的生态承载力; 在生态足迹的计算中, 考虑了废弃物排放造成的污染, 将废弃物的生态足迹纳入生态占用之中。最后, 应用该模型从生物产品等多个账户对天津市 2001?2008 年的发展情况进行了分析, 结果表明: 天津市的生态承载力大于生态足迹, 且生态盈余有逐年扩大的趋势, 因而天津市处于相对可持续的发展之中。

关键词: 能值分析, 生态足迹, 生态承载力, 生态盈亏分析