Abstract: Based on a brief review of existing carbon emission methods and models, the future carbon emissions for China was predicted up to 2050. The best probable emission range for China is 2.4-3.3 PgC/a in 2050, with per capita emissions of 1.7-2.3 ton C/cap. According to the upper limit of the best probable range, China's carbon emissions will peak in 2035, with the peak value of 4.4PgC/a and per capita emissions of 3.0 ton C/cap. The best probable range of cumulative emission for China for 2006-2050 is 102-156 Pg C. The cumulative per capita emission for 2006-2050 is 71-109 ton C/ cap, with the upper limit lower than that of America and comparable with developed countries. While for 1850-2005, cumulative per capita emissions for China were only 1/10 that of developed countries and 1/20 of America, which implies that in terms of cumulative per capita emissions, significant gap still exists between China and developed countries.

Key words: China, carbon emissions, projection, scenario, best probable range

摘要： 在简要评价碳排放预测方法和模型的基础上, 对我国2050 年的碳排放量进行了预测。结果表明, 我国2050年碳排放量最佳可能范围为2.4 ～3.3 PgC/a; 人均碳排放量为 1.7 ～2. 3 tC。最佳可能上限预测的碳排放量峰值年为2035 年, 碳排放量峰值为4. 4 PgC/ a, 人均碳排放量峰值为3. 0 tC。2006?2050 年我国累计碳排放总量的最佳可能范围为 102 ～156 PgC, 人均累计碳排放量为 71 ～109 tC。人均累计排放最佳预测上限低于美国同期累计人均排放, 与发达国家同期累计人均排放相差不大, 但在1850?2005 年, 我国累计人均排放分别是发达国家和美国的约1/10 和1/20。这些表明就人均累计排放而言, 我国与发达国家间仍然有较大的差距。

关键词: 中国, 2050年, 碳排放, 预测, 情景, 最佳可能范围