Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

Previous Articles     Next Articles

2050 Carbon Emissions Projection for China (Carbon Emissions and Social Development, Ⅳ)

YUE Chao1, WANG Shaopeng1, ZHU Jiangling1, FANG Jingyun1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory of Earth Surface of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2. Climate Change Research Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871;
  • Received:2010-04-21 Online:2010-07-20 Published:2010-07-20

2050年中国碳排放量的情景预测???碳排放与社会发展Ⅳ

岳超1,王少鹏1,朱江玲1,方精云1,2   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院生态学系, 北京大学地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京100871; 2. 北京大学气候变化研究中心, 北京 100871;

Abstract: Based on a brief review of existing carbon emission methods and models, the future carbon emissions for China was predicted up to 2050. The best probable emission range for China is 2.4-3.3 PgC/a in 2050, with per capita emissions of 1.7-2.3 ton C/cap. According to the upper limit of the best probable range, China's carbon emissions will peak in 2035, with the peak value of 4.4PgC/a and per capita emissions of 3.0 ton C/cap. The best probable range of cumulative emission for China for 2006-2050 is 102-156 Pg C. The cumulative per capita emission for 2006-2050 is 71-109 ton C/ cap, with the upper limit lower than that of America and comparable with developed countries. While for 1850-2005, cumulative per capita emissions for China were only 1/10 that of developed countries and 1/20 of America, which implies that in terms of cumulative per capita emissions, significant gap still exists between China and developed countries.

Key words: China, carbon emissions, projection, scenario, best probable range

摘要: 在简要评价碳排放预测方法和模型的基础上, 对我国2050 年的碳排放量进行了预测。结果表明, 我国2050年碳排放量最佳可能范围为2.4 ~3.3 PgC/a; 人均碳排放量为 1.7 ~2. 3 tC。最佳可能上限预测的碳排放量峰值年为2035 年, 碳排放量峰值为4. 4 PgC/ a, 人均碳排放量峰值为3. 0 tC。2006?2050 年我国累计碳排放总量的最佳可能范围为 102 ~156 PgC, 人均累计碳排放量为 71 ~109 tC。人均累计排放最佳预测上限低于美国同期累计人均排放, 与发达国家同期累计人均排放相差不大, 但在1850?2005 年, 我国累计人均排放分别是发达国家和美国的约1/10 和1/20。这些表明就人均累计排放而言, 我国与发达国家间仍然有较大的差距。

关键词: 中国, 2050年, 碳排放, 预测, 情景, 最佳可能范围

CLC Number: