In order to clarify the situation of non-grain farmland in typical hilly areas of southwest China and provide targeted control strategies, this study investigated the spatial distribution of non-grain crops taking the Three River Basin (Yunnan section) as the study region. The driving force of non-grain industrialization in this region was identified from the perspectives of cultivated land resource endowment, social and economic factors and agricultural input factors, and the driving types of non-grain industrialization were divided. The results showed as follows. 1) In 2019, the total non-grain area of the Three River Basin was 100.41 million hm², and the average non-grain rate was 34.69%. The non-grain production degree of county-level units in the Jinsha River Basin was significantly higher than that in the Nujiang River Basin and Lancang River Basin. 2) Several significant characteristics that contributed to non-grain industrialisation included grain output per unit, share of rural population, slope, and per capita cultivated land area. 3) The driving types of non-grain-driven cultivated land mostly consisted of resource-driven, labor-driven, and economy-driven categories. The labor-driven type was identified as the predominant driving force in the region. Economy-driven type are all in county-level cities or municipal districts, while the resource-driven type is mainly concentrated in proximity to the economic-driven type. The pursuit of diverse approaches to managing non-grain farmland, based on variations in driving factors across different regions, can contribute to the development of evidence-based strategies for adjusting national policies related to food security and farmland preservation.

non-grain cultivated land, random forest, driving type, Three River Basin

为厘清中国西南典型丘陵山区的耕地非粮化态势并提供针对性的管控策略, 以三江流域(云南区段)为研究区, 探究该地区非粮化的空间格局及驱动因素, 从耕地资源禀赋、社会经济因素和农业投入因素3个角度来识别非粮化的驱动力, 划分非粮化的驱动类型, 得到如下结果表明。1) 2019年三江流域(云南区段)非粮化总面积为100.41万 hm², 非粮化率均值为34.69%, 其中金沙江流域中各县级单元的非粮化程度明显高于怒江和澜沧江流域。2) 粮食单位产出量、乡村人口占比、坡度和人均耕地面积是耕地非粮化的重要驱动因子。3) 耕地非粮化的驱动类型可划分为资源驱动型、劳动力驱动型和经济驱动型, 其中劳动力驱动型是区域内主要的驱动类型, 经济驱动型均为县级市或市辖区, 资源驱动型主要分布在经济驱动型的周围。根据不同驱动类型的县域, 寻求耕地非粮化的不同管控途径, 有助于为国家粮食安全和耕地保护政策调整提供科学依据。

耕地非粮化, 随机森林, 驱动类型, 三江流域