北京大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (2): 380-394.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2026.012

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低碳城市试点政策的产业碳减排效应再评估: 来自38个二位数工业行业的新证据

黄志基1, 宋名悦2,3, 张剑1, 仝德2,3,†   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学政府管理学院, 北京 100081 2. 北京大学深圳研究生院北京大学未来城市实验室(深圳), 深圳 518055 3. 北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院, 深圳 518055
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-25 修回日期:2025-10-10 出版日期:2026-03-20 发布日期:2026-03-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(72274229)和北京大学未来城市实验室(深圳)铁汉科研开放课题基金(202104)资助

Re-Evaluating the Industrial Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Low-Carbon City Pilots: New Evidence from 38 Two-Digit Industrial Sectors

HUANG Zhiji1, SONG Mingyue2,3, ZHANG Jian1, TONG De2,3,†   

  1. 1. School of Government, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081 2. Laboratory for Urban Future, Peking University (Shenzhen), Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055 3. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055
  • Received:2025-02-25 Revised:2025-10-10 Online:2026-03-20 Published:2026-03-20

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摘要：

基于2009—2020年133个城市的38个二位数工业行业碳排放数据, 采用双重差分法, 对低碳城市试点政策的碳减排效应进行再评估, 并从资源配置与技术创新两个维度探讨其潜在作用机制。结果表明, 低碳城市试点政策显著地降低“城市–行业”层面的碳排放强度; 土地资源配置优化是低碳城市试点政策发挥作用的重要路径之一, 技术创新关联水平在碳减排过程中亦具有重要作用; 这项政策在财政压力较大或土地财政依赖程度较低的城市以及中低技术层次、劳动密集型和资本密集型行业中产生的碳减排效应更显著, 对高碳行业的减排效果更突出。研究结果有助于揭示“城市–行业”尺度下低碳政策的实施机制, 为探索地方低碳发展路径提供理论参考。

关键词: 低碳城市试点政策, 工业产业碳减排, 资源配置, 技术创新

Abstract:

Based on carbon emission data from 38 two-digit industrial sectors across 133 cities from 2009 to 2020, this study reappraises the carbon reduction effects of low-carbon city pilot policies using a difference-in-differences approach and explores potential mechanisms through resource allocation and technological innovation. The results indicate that low-carbon pilot policies significantly reduce carbon intensity at the city-sector level. Optimized land resource allocation serves as an important channel for the policy’s impact, while the level of technological innovation also plays a critical role in the emission reduction process. The carbon reduction effect is more pronounced in cities with greater fiscal pressure or lower dependence on land finance, as well as in medium-low technology, labor-intensive, and capital-intensive sectors. The policy exhibits a stronger emission reduction effect in high-carbon industries. This study helps to unveil the implementation mechanism of low-carbon policies at the city-sector level and provides theoretical insights for exploring localized low-carbon development pathways.

Key words: low-carbon city pilot policies, industrial carbon reduction, resource allocation, technology innovation

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