北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (6): 1094-1106.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2024.023

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新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下世界玉米海运格局变化研究

赵鹏军1,2,†, 尹昭有1, 张梦竹2,†, 牛樱楠2, 何张源2   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871 2. 北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院, 深圳 518055
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-17 修回日期:2024-01-08 出版日期:2024-11-20 发布日期:2024-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 赵鹏军, E-mail: pengjun.zhao(at)pku.edu.cn, 张梦竹, E-mail: mengzhu.zhang(at)pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42130402)和深圳市科技计划项目(JCYJ20220818100810024, KQTD20221101093604016)资助

Changes in World Corn Shipping Pattern under the Background of COVID-19 Pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ZHAO Pengjun1,2,†, YIN Zhaoyou1, ZHANG Mengzhu2,†, NIU Yingnan2, HE Zhangyuan2   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055
  • Received:2023-11-17 Revised:2024-01-08 Online:2024-11-20 Published:2024-11-20
  • Contact: ZHAO Pengjun, E-mail: pengjun.zhao(at)pku.edu.cn, ZHANG Mengzhu, E-mail: mengzhu.zhang(at)pku.edu.cn

摘要:

采用2019, 2021和2022年的国际玉米贸易数据, 通过矩阵构建和算法设计进行数据映射, 探究新冠疫情与俄乌冲突背景下全球玉米海运格局的变化, 得到以下结果。1) 泛地中海、西北太平洋近岸海域和加勒比海海域是世界玉米航运的3个核心。2) 疫情和俄乌冲突对世界玉米航运结构的影响有限, 局域变动大于整体变动, 冲突对世界玉米航运格局的影响集中在泛地中海地区。玉米航运格局演化量变仍在持续积累。3) 疫情和俄乌冲突都对航道玉米运量和运价产生双重效应, 俄乌冲突干扰了疫情缓和后世界玉米航运的反弹。考虑到全球航运玉米单价上涨, 黑海相关航道经济价值下降明显, 南美经好望角至东亚、东南亚的大洋航道等经济价值增长态势良好。4) 泛地中海海域航道具有高度的综合价值; 虽然非洲大陆西侧岸线等航道的经济价值较低, 但具有较高的国际服务价值。

关键词: 玉米海运, 俄乌冲突, 新冠疫情, 粮食安全

Abstract:

Using international corn trade data in 2019, 2021, and 2022, through matrix construction and algorithm design for data mapping, this paper explores the changes of the global corn shipping pattern under the background of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine Conflict. It is found that the Pan-Mediterranean Sea, the northwest Pacific coast area and the Caribbean Sea are the three cores of the world’s corn shipping. The epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a limited impact on the world corn shipping structure, and local changes are greater than the overall changes. The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the world corn shipping pattern is concentrated in the Pan-Mediterranean region. The quantitative changes in the evolution of corn shipping pattern are still accumulating. Both the epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have a dual effect in the volume of corn and freight rates. The Russia-Ukraine conflict interfers with the rebound of corn shipping in the world’s waterways after the easing of the epidemic. Considering the rising unit price of global shipping corn, the economic value of the Black Sea-related waterway has decreased significantly, and the economic value of waterway from South America around the Cape of Good Hope to East Asia and Southeast Asia shows a positive growth trend. The Pan-Mediterranean waterway is of highly comprehensive value. The western coastline of the African continent has low economic value but high international service value.

Key words: corn shipping, Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 pandemic, food security