耕地非粮化, 随机森林, 驱动类型, 三江流域

In order to clarify the situation of non-grain farmland in typical hilly areas of southwest China and provide targeted control strategies, this study investigated the spatial distribution of non-grain crops taking the Three River Basin (Yunnan section) as the study region. The driving force of non-grain industrialization in this region was identified from the perspectives of cultivated land resource endowment, social and economic factors and agricultural input factors, and the driving types of non-grain industrialization were divided. The results showed as follows. 1) In 2019, the total non-grain area of the Three River Basin was 100.41 million hm², and the average non-grain rate was 34.69%. The non-grain production degree of county-level units in the Jinsha River Basin was significantly higher than that in the Nujiang River Basin and Lancang River Basin. 2) Several significant characteristics that contributed to non-grain industrialisation included grain output per unit, share of rural population, slope, and per capita cultivated land area. 3) The driving types of non-grain-driven cultivated land mostly consisted of resource-driven, labor-driven, and economy-driven categories. The labor-driven type was identified as the predominant driving force in the region. Economy-driven type are all in county-level cities or municipal districts, while the resource-driven type is mainly concentrated in proximity to the economic-driven type. The pursuit of diverse approaches to managing non-grain farmland, based on variations in driving factors across different regions, can contribute to the development of evidence-based strategies for adjusting national policies related to food security and farmland preservation.

non-grain cultivated land, random forest, driving type, Three River Basin