北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 626-634.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2019.040

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滇中城市降水特征及其成因分析

何萍1, 李矜霄2,3, 付永梅1, 刘树华4,†   

  1. 1. 云南省楚雄师范学院地理科学与旅游管理学院, 楚雄 675000 2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京100029 3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049 4. 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-07 修回日期:2018-09-24 出版日期:2019-07-20 发布日期:2019-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘树华, E-mail: lshuhua(at)pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41465001)资助

Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Its Causes in Central Yunnan City

HE Ping1, LI Jinxiao2,3, FU Yongmei1, LIU Shuhua4,†   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Tourism Management, Chuxiong Normal University, Chuxiong 675000 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BeiJing 100029 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2018-06-07 Revised:2018-09-24 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-07-20
  • Contact: LIU Shuhua, E-mail: lshuhua(at)pku.edu.cn

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摘要：

基于滇中城市群4个主要城市(昆明、曲靖、玉溪和楚雄)近50年的降水资料, 利用统计分析、小波分析、累计距平和灰色关联度分析等方法, 分析滇中城市降水量的年、季、月变化特征以及影响降水量的各种因子。结果表明, 滇中城市近50年平均降水量为928.1 mm, 整体上呈下降趋势, 并在2009年发生突变; 降水量有干、湿季之分, 雨季(5—10月)降水多, 干季(11月至次年4月)降水少, 最大降水量出现在7月(184.0 mm), 最小降水量出现在12月(13.8 mm)。通过小波分析, 发现年降水量呈现22年左右的主周期变化; 夏季降水量呈现以19天为主周期的增减变化, 降水多, 变幅小; 冬季降水量呈现以20天为主周期的增减变化, 降水少, 变幅大。通过灰色关联度分析, 发现自然因子中对降水影响较大的是气温和相对湿度, 人文因子中对降水影响最大的是人口和城市面积, 并且, 自然因子的作用大于人文因子。

关键词: 滇中城市, 降水特征, 灰色关联度分析, 自然因子, 人文因子

Abstract:

Basing on the nearly 50-year precipitation data of 4 major city (Kunming, Qujing, Yuxi, Chuxiong) in urban agglomeration of central Yunnan, this paper analyzes the variation of precipitation in annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale by using methods including the statistical analysis, the wavelet analysis, accumulative leveling method, and the grey relational analysis. The result shows that the average precipitation in past 50 years is 928.1 mm. The trend of precipitation is declining, and a mutation appears in 2009. Besides, precipitation has a dry and wet season in these region, and the wet season is between May and October but the dry season is between November and April of next year, There are more precipitation in the rainy season and less precipitation in dry season. The maximum of precipitation (184.0 mm) appears in July, but the minimum of precipitation (13.8 mm) appears in December. According to the wavelet analysis, the change of annual precipitation is about 22 years, the summer precipitation has a 19-day increase-decrease cycle with more precipitation and smaller variation, and the winter precipitation has a 20-day increase-decrease cycle with less precipitation and larger variation. The grey relational analysis show that the temperature and the specific humidity are dominant natural factors, and the population and the city size are dominant human factors. Besides, the natural factors play greater role than the artificial factors.

Key words: central Yunnan city, precipitation characteristics, grey relational analysis, natural factor, human factor

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