瓶装水消费问题研究—— 以广东省为例

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.024

北京大学学报自然科学版 ›› 2017, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (3): 469-474.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.024

瓶装水消费问题研究—— 以广东省为例

朱继松, 朱勇胜, 余升文, 邱国玉()

深圳市太阳能与风能海水淡化关键技术工程实验室, 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 深圳 518055

收稿日期:2016-01-01 修回日期:2016-02-05 出版日期:2017-05-20 发布日期:2017-05-20
基金资助:
深圳市知识创新计划(JCYJ20130331145022339)、深圳市科技计划项目(JCYJ20140417144423187, JCYJ2015033116061777)、深圳市技术创新计划技术攻关项目(JSGG20150813172407669)和深圳市发改委未来产业发展专项“深圳市太阳能与风能海水淡化关键技术工程实验室”资助

A Study on Bottled Water Consumption: A Bounds Testing Analysis for Guangdong Province

Jisong ZHU, Yongsheng ZHU, Shengwen YU, Guoyu QIU()

Shenzhen Engineering Laboratory for Water Desalination with Renewable Energy, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055

Received:2016-01-01 Revised:2016-02-05 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了研究瓶装水消费的驱动因素, 以广东省的瓶装水消费为例, 利用边限协整检验方法、自回归分布滞后模型以及误差纠正模型分析 GDP 指数、在校生人数和过夜游客数对瓶装水消费量的影响。结果表明: 收入因素在长期和短期都对瓶装水消费量有显著的促进作用旅游和教育这两个典型行业的发展壮大都对瓶装水消费量的增长有显著的促进作用, 其中旅游业的发展对瓶装水消费量的长期促进效果更明显, 在校学生对瓶装水的消费则具有一定的替代性。因此, 随着国民收入水平的进一步提高以及旅游等行业的进一步发展, 瓶装水的消费量将进一步增加, 带来的能源消耗和环境问题不容忽视, 需要深入研究。

关键词: 水与能, 瓶装水, 驱动因素, 边限协整分析

Abstract:

To study the driving factors underlying the bottled water consumption growth, the bounds testing analysis for Guangdong Province between the bottled water consumption and the GDP indexes, the student number and the number of overnight tourist was performed. The results indicated that there existed a long-run relationship between the bottled water consumption and these factors. The subsequent autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) analysis concluded that the income level was positively related with the bottled water consumption in the long run and short run. Moreover, the growth of the selected two particular sectors, the education sector and the tourism sector, was also positively related with the bottled water consumption. Additionally, the tourism had a larger influence on the bottled water consumption than the education sector in the long run, and the education sector exhibited some substitutability of bottled water consumption. Therefore, with the increase of the income level and development of the tourism and education sector, the energy problems and other environmental problems behind the bottled water consumption will not be negligible.

Key words: water and energy, bottled water, driving factors, bounds testing

朱继松, 朱勇胜, 余升文, 邱国玉. 瓶装水消费问题研究—— 以广东省为例[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(3): 469-474.

Jisong ZHU, Yongsheng ZHU, Shengwen YU, Guoyu QIU. A Study on Bottled Water Consumption: A Bounds Testing Analysis for Guangdong Province[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(3): 469-474.

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链接本文: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.024

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V53/I3/469

图/表 4

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显著性水平	Pesaran等^[23]的F统计量临界值		Narayan^[25]的F统计量临界值		计算出的F统计量
显著性水平	下界值	上界值	下界值	上界值	计算出的F统计量
1%	4.29	5.61	5.33	7.06
5%	3.23	4.35	3.71	5.02	8.96^***
10%	2.72	3.77	3.01	4.15

显著性水平	Pesaran等^[23]的F统计量临界值		Narayan^[25]的F统计量临界值		计算出的F统计量
显著性水平	下界值	上界值	下界值	上界值	计算出的F统计量
1%	4.29	5.61	5.33	7.06
5%	3.23	4.35	3.71	5.02	8.96^***
10%	2.72	3.77	3.01	4.15

自变量	系数	标准误差	t统计量
ln IGDP	0.71^***	0.03	28.41
ln N_STU	0.14^***	0.03	4.06
ln N_TOURIST	0.70^***	0.02	37.45

自变量	系数	标准误差	t统计量
ln IGDP	0.71^***	0.03	28.41
ln N_STU	0.14^***	0.03	4.06
ln N_TOURIST	0.70^***	0.02	37.45

自变量	系数	标准误差	t统计量
ECM_t_-1	-1.02	0.08	-13.16
Δln IGDP_t	0.76	0.21	3.57
Δln N_STU_t	1.49	0.29	5.06
Δln N_STU_t_-1	2.68	0.43	6.21
Δln N_STU_t_-2	-0.64	0.35	-1.84
Δln N_TOURIST_t	0.03	0.04	0.83
Δln N_TOURIST_t_-1	-0.50	0.06	-8.66
Δln N_TOUIST_t_-2	-0.27	0.05	-5.43
常数项(Constant)	0.00	0.03	-0.20

瓶装水消费问题研究—— 以广东省为例

A Study on Bottled Water Consumption: A Bounds Testing Analysis for Guangdong Province

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