基于NEWS模型的北江流域营养盐输出模拟

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以珠江三大支流之一北江流域为研究区域, 应用国际上最新提出的流域营养盐输出模型 Global NEWS, 经调试后, 用其估算北江流域溶解态营养盐的输出总量。通过收集文献统计资料并使用 ArcGIS 软件建立模拟所需数据库。经率定和验证, 发现模型对 DIN 的模拟效率系数是 0.61, 具有一定的可靠性。模拟结果表明: 1) 2010 年溶解态氮的输出总量为 3.75 万 t/a, 与2000年相比增加约 9.27%, 其中溶解态无机氮(DIN)占 83.51%, 溶解态有机氮(DON)占 16.49%; 2) 2010年溶解态磷的输出总量为 4.63 万t/a, 与2000年相比增加约 30.05%, 其中溶解态无机磷(DIP)占 86.21%, 溶解态有机磷(DOP)占13.79%; 3) 北江下游的绥江和中游的连江子流域营养盐输出总量最高, 应重视这些地区的营养盐污染; 4) 北江流域DIN输出量的主要贡献源是大气氮沉降, 其次是生物固氮和化肥施用, 而 DIP 的主要贡献源是养殖废水, 其次是化肥施用。研究结果也表明, 模型对国内中小型流域具有一定的适用性。

关键词: 北江流域, 营养盐输出, 农业非点源, Global NEWS模型

Abstract:

Global NEWS (Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) is an international modeling effort with few Chinese application cases, and this essay applied the model with modifications to Beijiang River Basin, one of the three main sub-basins of the Pearl River, in order to estimate the river basin-level export of multiple nutrient elements and elemental forms from land sources within the river basin to river mouths. A reliable environmental database of Beijiang River Basin was established by literature review and statistics collection, and with the help of ArcGIS technology. Model calibration and verification showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.61 on DIN (Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen) loads (t/a) exported at the basin mouth, indicating that the model performs reasonably well for DIN. Modelling results show that 1) in 2010, dissolved nitrogen exports (load) from Beijiang River Basin was 37.5 thousand t/a, which was 9.27% higher than that in 2000, with DIN accounting for 83.51% and DON (Dissolved Organic Nitrogen) accounting for 16.49%. 2) In 2010, dissolved phosphorus exports (load) from Beijiang River Basin was 46.3 thousand t/a, which was 30.05% higher than that in 2000, and contained 86.21% of DIP (dissolved inorganic phosphorus) and 13.79% of DOP (dissolved organic phosphorus). 3) Spatially, nutrients exports (load) from Sui River Basin, one of the downstream sub-basins, and nutrients exports (load) from Lian River Basin, one of the midstream sub-basins, were relatively higher than those from other sub-basins, indicating the necessity of controlling nutrient pollution in the two sub-basins. 4) Atmospheric nitrogen deposition was the major source of DIN export load, followed by synthetic fertilizer and biological nitrogen fixation, while animal wastewater discharging was the major source of DIP export load, followed by synthetic fertilizer. The results also show that the NEWS model is applicable to China’s small-to-medium river basins.

Key words: Beijiang River Basin, nutrient exports, agricultural non-point pollution, Global NEWS model

中图分类号:

X522

李丽丽, 栾胜基. 基于NEWS模型的北江流域营养盐输出模拟[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(2): 369-377.

Lili LI, Shengji LUAN. Modeling Nutrients Exports by Rivers from Watersheds to River Mouth: Case Study of Beijiang River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(2): 369-377.

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链接本文: https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.018

https://xbna.pku.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V53/I2/369

图/表 5

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主要参数	数据来源
地形参数	ASTER DEM数据, 分辨率30 m×30 m, 2000年
土地利用	GlobalCover2009土地覆盖数据产品, 分辨率1 km×1 km, 2009年
人口空间分布	2008年LandScan全球人口数据库产品, 分辨率1 km×1 km, 结合当地人口自然增长率估算2000, 2005及2010年人口空间密度
降水	水文年鉴, 北江资料, 分散于北江干流及各支流的205个降水量站的逐日数据, 2000, 2005及2010年^[23-25]
流量	水文年鉴, 北江资料, 分散于北江干流及各支流的22个水文站的逐日数据, 2000, 2005及2010年^[23-25]
水库参数	Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD)数据, 2000, 2005及2010年
污水处理系统覆盖人口比例	联合国统计司和联合国环境署数据, 2000, 2005及2010年
城镇化率、化肥投入强度和比例、农作物播种面积、农产品产量	县级统计资料, 2000, 2005及2010年

主要参数	数据来源
地形参数	ASTER DEM数据, 分辨率30 m×30 m, 2000年
土地利用	GlobalCover2009土地覆盖数据产品, 分辨率1 km×1 km, 2009年
人口空间分布	2008年LandScan全球人口数据库产品, 分辨率1 km×1 km, 结合当地人口自然增长率估算2000, 2005及2010年人口空间密度
降水	水文年鉴, 北江资料, 分散于北江干流及各支流的205个降水量站的逐日数据, 2000, 2005及2010年^[23-25]
流量	水文年鉴, 北江资料, 分散于北江干流及各支流的22个水文站的逐日数据, 2000, 2005及2010年^[23-25]
水库参数	Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD)数据, 2000, 2005及2010年
污水处理系统覆盖人口比例	联合国统计司和联合国环境署数据, 2000, 2005及2010年
城镇化率、化肥投入强度和比例、农作物播种面积、农产品产量	县级统计资料, 2000, 2005及2010年

营养盐形态	营养盐输出总量/(t·a^-1)
营养盐形态	2000年	2005年	2010年
DIN	28399.50	29800.10	31314.98
DON	5918.38	6123.59	6183.86
DIP	3037.59	3732.03	3987.33
DOP	518.70	560.86	637.69

营养盐形态	营养盐输出总量/(t·a^-1)
营养盐形态	2000年	2005年	2010年
DIN	28399.50	29800.10	31314.98
DON	5918.38	6123.59	6183.86
DIP	3037.59	3732.03	3987.33
DOP	518.70	560.86	637.69