Abstract: Taking Yuzhong County of Gansu Province as a case study, based on land-use data in 1996, the authors adopted CLUE-S model to simulate land-use distribution in 2008 at the basic grid level (200 m×200 m), with the Kappa index 0.82. Then three scenarios of land-use spatial allocation in Yuzhong County in 2020, namely, farmland protection scenario, economic-oriented scenario and ecologically-oriented scenario, were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when running CLUE-S model in GIS environment. The results show that the scenario schemes have strongly influence on land-use distribution. Under farmland protection scenario, the farmland keep higher stability and tend to concentrated distribution characteristics. Arable land transition mainly occur in the north of the county and transit into grassland and forestland. While under economic-oriented scenario, construction land mainly distribute in Yuzhong Basin, where has better geological conditions. Ecological land such as farmland, grassland and forestland, take on characteristics under ecolo- gically-oriented scenario. Therefore, CLUE-S model is a powerful tool to simulate land-use spatial distribution of Yuzhong County, which provides a scientific basis for land-use planning and urban planning in the future.

Key words: optimal allocation of land resources, spatial distribution, CLUE-S, scenarios simulation, Yuzhong County

摘要： 利用CLUE-S模型, 以甘肃省榆中县为案例区, 基于1996年土地利用现状, 对2008年土地利用进行模拟, 在200 m×200 m模拟尺度下, Kappa指数为0.82。在此基础上, 设置耕地保护、建设发展和生态保护3种土地利用空间布局情景, 模拟2020年不同情景下榆中县土地利用空间布局。结果表明: 耕地保护情景下, 耕地稳定性较高, 分布集中连片, 主要集中在榆中盆地, 耕地转出主要集中在北部地区, 主要转变为草地和林地; 建设发展情景下, 建设用地围绕榆中县城关镇扩展, 主要由耕地和草地转入, 耕地的稳定性较差; 生态保护情景下, 林地和草地得到较好保护, 呈现集中连片特征, 地势较高处的耕地转变为林地和草地。生态保护情景下, 土地利用空间格局的聚集性最高, 连通性最好。 CLUE-S模型是模拟榆中县土地利用空间布局的有力工具, 模拟结果可为该区土地利用规划修编和未来城市规划布局提供科学依据。

关键词: 土地资源优化配置, 空间布局, CLUE-S, 情景模拟, 榆中县