Abstract:

For the land use demands of Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration cooperative development strategies, four kinds of land use policies, i.e. status quo continuation, food security, nature protection and urban expansion were made. A modified Cobb-Douglas utility function was developed to quantify the influence of different policies on various land use demands, and a CLUE-S model was built to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of Jing-Jin-Ji land use under different policies. Results show that, compared with year 2010, great changes occur on land use areas and patterns in the year 2020 under different policies. “Status quo continuation” is characterized by the continuous expansion of urban groups, increasing the construction land by 2280 km². “Food Security” significantly increases the arable land by 3611.4 km², while reducing the ecological land including forest and grassland. “Nature protection” greatly reduces the area of arable land by 3082.13 km², while increasing forest, grassland and water area by 3726.4 km². “Urban expansion” substantially increases the construction land by 3375 km², while decreasing other types of land use. Spatially, every land use policy has its significant regional characteristics in land use conversion. The increase of construction land always comes together with the decrease of arable land, which tends to occur in the existing urban surroundings. The increase of ecological land is more often seen in Bashang plateau, Yanshan Mountains as well as Taihang Mountains. This study has great reference value in designing optimal land use policies, especially in the gradual implementation stage of the Jing-Jin-Ji collaborative development strategies.

Key words: land use changes simulation, CLUE-S model, Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration

摘要：

针对京津冀城市群协同发展对土地利用的需求, 制定现状延续、粮食安全、保护自然和城市扩展4种土地利用策略。使用改进的柯布?道格拉斯效用函数, 量化土地利用策略对各土地利用类型需求的影响, 并利用CLUE-S模型模拟不同策略下京津冀城市群土地利用的时空特征。结果表明, 在不同土地利用策略下, 2020年各类土地利用类型的面积和空间格局与2010年有较大不同。现状延续策略以城镇持续扩张为特征, 建设用地增加2280 km²; 粮食安全策略下耕地面积显著增加, 共增加 3611.4 km², 但林地和草地等生态用地面积减少; 保护自然策略以耕地大量减少为代价, 共减少耕地3082.13 km², 但林地、草地和水域增加3726.4 km²; 在城市扩展策略下, 除建设用地大幅增加(增加3375 km²)外, 其他各类用地都呈现减少态势。在空间格局上, 各策略下土地利用类型的转化有显著的区域特征: 建设用地的增加和耕地的减少高度契合, 往往发生在原有城镇的周边地区; 生态用地的增加多出现在坝上高原以及燕山与太行山山地。在京津冀协同发展战略逐步实施的背景下, 研究结果可以为制定不同偏好的土地利用政策提供参考。

关键词: 土地利用变化模拟, CLUE-S 模型, 京津冀城市群