关键词: LMDI模型, 河南省, 粮食产量, 耕地面积, 粮食单产

Abstract: The LMDI technique and decomposition method are used to study the contribution of factors to grain production change based on grain production calculating model in Henan from 1980 to 2010. The growth of grain production is decomposed into four effects, including cultivated land area, multiple-cropping index, grain farming index and grain yield per hectare, and then accumulated effect of each factor is explored. Firstly, grain production increases by 54.371 million ton from 1980 to 2010. It is estimated that the accumulated contribution values of cultivated land area, multiple-cropping index, grain farming index and grain yield per hectare at province level are -1.754 million, 11.657 million, -5.734 million and 28.716 million ton, respectively. Grain yield per hectare is the dominant contributor to total grain increment, and multiple-cropping index is second. Secondly, at prefecture-city level, the effect of grain yield per hectare and multiple-cropping index is positive, while the other two factors in most of prefecture cities are negative. Thirdly, the pattern “high in the eastern while low in the western” of grain production at county level in Henan is very evident, and there are obvious differences among accumulated effects of the four factors. Overall, multiple-cropping index and grain yield per hectare result in remarkable grain increment in eastern Henan. Aiming at steady and continuous increase in grain production, some work such as cultivated land protection mechanism to increase grain sowing area, investment policy of agricultural infrastructure and optimization of agricultural inputs to improve grain yield per hectare should be enhanced.

Key words: grain yield per hectare, logarithmic mean weigh division index method, Henan province, grain production, cultivated land area