Abstract:

This study evaluated the impacts to the air quality, health and economy from achieving the “coal to electricity” goals, replacing residential coal with clean energy such as electricity, in the Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) during the 13th Five-Year period under different heating technology choices and electricity supply sources based on an integrated model combining with scenario analysis. The results indicated that the PM_2.5 concentration in the three regions reduced by 6–15 μg/m³ with the implementation of the residential “coal to electricity” policy, which can avoid 22.2 thousand cases of premature death and 607.8 thousand morbidity cases. It could create 18.73–19.87 billion Yuan social net benefits in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2020 if three regions achieved the policy goal under the same pathway. Based on the net benefit analysis of three regions, this study gave the policy implication that Beijing and Hebei should adopt the “air source heating pump with the renewable electricity supply” pathway, while the Tianjin should adopt the “regenerative electric heater with the renewable electricity supply” pathway. The net benefits would reach to 20.34 billion Yuan if all three regions implemented the plans that maximized their own net benefits.

Key words: coal to electricity policy, IMED model, PM_2.5, health benefits, economic benefits

摘要：

针对以电力等清洁能源替代居民散煤的“煤改电”政策, 构建可实现京津冀区域“十三五”规划中“煤改电”政策目标的技术选择以及电力供应来源的相关情景, 利用综合评价模型分析并估算不同情景下实施“煤改电”政策对环境质量、健康效益和经济效益的影响。研究结果表明, 通过在该区域实施居民生活“煤改电”政策, 2020年京津冀区域PM_2.5年均浓度可以下降6~15 μg/m³, 可因此避免约2.22万人过早死亡和60.78万致病例。如同期在京津冀区域采用一致性的政策实现“煤改电”政策目标, 可以获得187.31~198.69亿元的社会净效益。基于对3个地区净效益的分析结果, 并考虑地区间的差异, 提出具体的技术选择建议: 北京市和河北省宜采用“空气源热泵+可再生能源供电”方式, 天津市则宜采用“蓄热式电暖器+可再生能源供电”的方式。在3个地区均采用各自净效益最大化的政策情景下, 整个京津冀区域的净效益约为203.41亿元。

关键词: 煤改电”政策, IMED模型, PM_2.5, 健康效益, 经济效益