Abstract:

The factor analysis of water resources and energy security in Shenzhen in 1996–2015 was carried out. Economic and average factor (f₁), population and elasticity factor (f₂) are two main factors. f₁ shows the threat of supporting the city’s normal operation to water resources and energy security, with a weight of 68%. f₂ shows the uncertainty brought about by the increments of economic and population to water energy system safety, with a weight of 32%. The composite score shows that the total water energy system safety in Shenzhen tends to decline. This conclusion accords with the actual situation of water energy system in Shenzhen municipality. It shows that the evaluation model is effective for the analysis of water energy security situation in Shenzhen, and can provide reference for the decision-making of Shenzhen municipality.

Key words: Shenzhen municipality, water and energy, factor analysis, regional security

摘要：

对深圳市1996—2015年水资源和能源安全状况进行因子分析, 得到经济和平均因子(f₁)、人口和弹性因子(f₂)两个主因子。f₁表明支撑城市正常运行对水资源和能源安全的威胁程度, 权重为68%; f₂表明经济和人口的增量给水–能系统安全带来的不确定性, 权重为32%; 综合得分表明深圳市总的水–能系统安全状况趋于下降。此结论符合深圳市水–能系统的实际情况, 说明将该评估模型用于深圳市水–能安全形势的分析是有效的, 可以为深圳市的有关决策提供参考依据。

关键词: 深圳市, 水与能, 因子分析, 区域安全