Abstract: Taking Zhangjiakou City as the study area, using the land use data of 1989, 2000 and 2010, DEM, and social-economic statistical data, the authors analyzed the characteristics of land use change, established the driving force model based on binary logistic regression, explained the spatial driving factors that caused land use change, and simulated the spatial pattern of construction land in future. This paper provided an effective way for land use system to model and forecast future land use pattern. The result showed that arable land decreased sharply from 1989 to 2010, which mainly transited to forest land, grass land and construction land; forest land increased significantly, which mainly originated from grass land and arable land; construction land increased quickly, which mainly originated from arable land, grassland and unused land; grassland, water body and other land decreased steadily. Spatial correlation factors at 400 m scale, slope, aspect, the distance to town, the distance to road and distance to natural reservation were the important factors driving the spatial change of land use. In future, the increase of construction land will mainly occur in the Baxia region and river valleys. The downtown of Zhangjiakou City will extend to the south and west. Construction land will significantly increase around the current city and town centers in Wanquan, Huailai and Yu County.

Key words: land use change, driving forces, spatial simulation, Logistic regression model, Zhangjiakou City

摘要： 利用张家口市1989, 2000 和2010 年土地利用数据、数字高程模型(DEM)以及社会经济统计数据, 分析张家口市土地利用变化的时空特征, 构建基于Logistic 回归模型的土地利用变化空间驱动力模型, 定量分析各土地利用类型变化的空间驱动因素, 进行未来建设用地空间格局模拟和预测, 为土地利用系统模拟与预测研究提供一种有效途径和工具。结果表明: 1989—2010 年研究区耕地大面积减少, 主要转为林地、草地和建设用地; 林地大面积增加, 主要来自于草地和耕地; 建设用地面积快速增加, 主要来自耕地、草地和未利用地; 草地、水域、未利用地面积持续减少。400 m 邻域范围内的地类邻域丰度自相关因子、坡度、坡向、距城镇、村庄、道路和自然保护区距离是影响土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。未来建设用地增加多发生在坝下中心城周围及河流谷地, 中心城区向南和向西扩展趋势明显, 万全县、怀来县、蔚县的建设用地增加较多, 且多围绕现有城镇中心进行扩张。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 驱动力, 空间模拟, Logistic 回归模型, 张家口市