Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

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Research on Dynamic Predictive Model of Regional Rainfall-Triggered Geologic Hazard Based on Unsaturated Flow Theory

CONG Weiqing1LI Tiefeng2,,PAN Mao1, ZHUANG Lili3   

  1. 1The Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution, Ministry of Education, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081; 3School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072;
  • Received:2007-04-23 Online:2008-03-20 Published:2008-03-20



  1. 1北京大学造山带与地壳演化教育部重点实验室,北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京100871;2中国地质环境监测院,北京100081;3天津大学建筑学院,天津300072;

Abstract: Dynamic predictive model based on unsaturated flow theory was built through combination of infinite slope stability analysis model and Iverson transient rainfall infiltration model. The model was test on typical region of Southern China. The results show that this method can predict the occurrence and development process of regional rainfall-triggered geological hazards dynamically. So a more precise quantitative analysis method was raised for the prediction of regional rainfall-triggered geologic hazard.

Key words: rainfall-triggered geologic hazard, regional, dynamic predictive model, unsaturated flow theory

摘要: 结合无限斜坡稳定性分析模型与Iverson瞬时降雨入渗理论,分析建立起基于非饱和渗流理论的预警模型,并以我国南方典型地区为例进行模型试验。结果表明,该方法能动态预测区域降雨型地质灾害发生发展过程,从而为区域地质灾害预警研究提供了一条更为精确的定量化分析方法。

关键词: 降雨型地质灾害, 区域, 动力学预警模型, 非饱和渗流理论

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