Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 617-628.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.040

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Effect of Logging Quota on Forestry Investment and Forest Protection: Empirical Analysis Based on Structural Equation Model

LIU Shilei1,2,†, XIA Jun2,3   

  1. 1. School of Environment & Natural Resource, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872 2. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871 3. Asia Pacific Forest Network Management Center, National Forest and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714
  • Received:2022-06-27 Revised:2022-10-27 Online:2023-07-20 Published:2023-07-20
  • Contact: LIU Shilei, E-mail: liusl2021(at)


刘士磊1,2,†, 夏军2,3   

  1. 1. 中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872 2. 北京大学国家发展研究院, 北京 100871 3. 国家林业和草原局亚太森林网络管理中心, 北京 100714
  • 通讯作者: 刘士磊, E-mail: liusl2021(at)
  • 基金资助:


Using a variety of data including forest resources inventory, forestry investment and quota compilation, this paper discusses the real impact of logging quota on forestry investment and forest protection through the two-way fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model. The study results show that the inhibitory effect of logging quota on forestry investment really exists, and its prominent effect is in social investment and foreign capital. At the same time, investment inhibition has played a masking effect between the logging quota and forest protection, offsetting the policy effect of quota management and causing a significant negative impact on forest protection. The conclusion will provide new ideas and references for the optimization of forest logging quota policy.

Key words: logging quota, forestry investment, forest protection, two-way fixed effect model, structural equation model


使用森林资源清查、林业投资和限额指标等数据, 通过双向固定效应模型和结构方程模型, 探讨采伐限额对林业投资和森林保护的影响。研究结果表明, 采伐限额对林业投资存在抑制效应, 并突出作用在社会投资和外资利用两个方面。同时, 投资抑制又在采伐限额与森林保护之间起到遮掩效果, 抵消了限额管理的政策效果, 对森林保护造成显著的负面影响。研究结果可为森林采伐限额政策的优化提供新的思路。

关键词: 采伐限额, 林业投资, 森林保护, 双向固定效应模型, 结构方程模型