Based on the data of the Annual Census of Enterprises and relevant socio-economic information, this article empirically investigates the impacts of environmental regulation and path dependence on the distribution of water pollution industries in the Yangtze River basin. The article analyses the path dependence effect through HHI and location entropy. In the empirical model, the two-stage least squares method is used to solve the endogeneity of environmental regulation indicators, which improves the reliability of the conclusions. The results show that the concentration of water pollution industries discharging COD in the Yangtze River is relatively low and dispersed, and the concentration of this industry declines significantly year by year during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. During the period of Tenth Five-Year Plan, the path-dependent effect of water pollution industries discharging COD is significant, while environmental regulation has no significant impact on their distribution. During the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the path dependence no longer has significant impact, and environmental regulation significantly reduces the output and growth rate of the industry. For non-COD water pollution industries and non-water pollution industries, environmental regulation has no significant impact on them. From the perspectives of enterprise ownership types, collective enterprises, private enterprises and foreignfunded enterprises are significantly affected during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, while state-owned enterprises and HMT enterprises are not significantly affected. Generally speaking, with the impact of path dependence and environmental regulation on the distribution of water pollution industries shifting from one to another, and with the impact of environmental regulation on the distribution of water pollution industries increasing, continuing to improve environmental regulation polices will contribute to the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin.

基于中国规模以上工业企业数据库和相关社会经济信息, 通过赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数和区位熵分析路径依赖效应, 使用面板固定效应模型, 实证考察环境规制和路径依赖对长江流域水污染密集型行业分布的影响。在实证模型中采用两阶段最小二乘法解决环境规制指标的内生性, 提高了研究结论的可靠性。研究结果表明, 长江流域排放COD的水污染密集型行业集中度较低, 分布较为分散, 并且该行业在“十一五”规划期间集中度逐年大幅下降。“十五”规划期间, 排放COD的水污染密集型行业存在显著的路径依赖效应, 环境规制对其分布没有显著影响; “十一五”规划期间, 该行业分布不再有显著的产业集聚优势, 环境规制显著地降低该行业的产值及增长率。对于排放非COD的水污染密集型行业和非水污染密集型行业, 环境规制没有显著影响。从企业所有制类型来看, 集体企业、私营企业和外商投资企业在“十一五”规划期间均受到显著的影响, 国有企业和港澳台企业则未受到显著影响。总体上, 随着路径依赖和环境规制对水污染密集型行业分布的影响此消彼长, 环境规制对水污染密集型行业分布的影响越来越大, 继续完善环境规制政策有助于长江流域的可持续发展。