›› 2015, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (4): 694-706.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2015.074

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Assessment of the Trend of Heavy PM2.5 Pollution Days and Economic Loss of Health Effects during 2001–2013

MU Quan;ZHANG Shiqiu   

  1. Institute of Environment and Economy, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871;
  • Received:2014-12-31 Revised:2015-01-15 Online:2015-07-20 Published:2015-07-20
  • About author:ZHANG Shiqiu

中国2001—2013 年PM2.5 重污染的历史变化与健康影响的经济损失评估


  1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 环境与经济研究所, 北京 100871;
  • 作者简介:张世秋
  • 基金资助:

Abstract: In order to explore the historical annual heavily PM2.5 polluted days and their health loss, the study constructs a daily air quality dataset for 31 provinces of China from 2001 to 2013. Further, it evaluates the health impacts especially the premature death and the economic loss due to the heavy PM2.5 pollution days of each year since 2001 for each province, by applying the latest results of dose-response in epidemiologic studies and taking account of the age structure of population as well as valuation approaches. The result shows that since 2001, heavily polluted situation (above the defined threshold, here the 2nd grade of air quality standard is applied for practical reason) for PM2.5 occurred in 71 percent of the provinces on a yearly basis. Although the average concentration of heavily polluted days did not have much variations during the thirteen years and the trend went down during 2001–2012 in terms of occurrence, heavily polluted situation increased dramatically in frequency in 2013. As a result, the proportion of heavily polluted days in 2013 was the highest during 2001–2013. It is estimated that over 65000 premature deaths was caused by heavy PM2.5 pollution days in 2013, which can be assessed as the 28.1 billion Yuan loss in economic term, 54 percent of the total economic loss in these thirteen years equivalently. The surge of economic loss in 2013 was attributed to the lasting heavy PM2.5 pollution in January 2013 and eight provinces in eastern and middle China.

Key words: heavily polluted days, PM2.5, health impact, economic loss

摘要: 回顾 21 世纪以来中国PM2.5 重污染及其健康影响与损失的历史变化, 通过构建2001—2013 年中国31 个省PM2.5 重污染数据集, 结合最新的流行病学剂量–反应关系研究结果, 同时在死亡风险赋值中考虑年龄结构的影响, 评估2001 年以来各省因PM2.5 重污染对人群健康的影响与相应的经济损失。研究结果表明, 2001 年以来PM2.5 重污染现象持续发生, 全国平均每年71%的省份都受到重污染的影响。尽管13 年间的PM2.5 重污染浓度并未呈现明显恶化趋势, 且发生比例及其健康影响在2001—2012 年间持续减少, 但2013 年出现长时间的重污染现象, 成为13 年间重污染发生比例/频率最高的年份。2013 年因PM2.5 重污染带来的过早死亡达6.5 万例, 健康损失为281 亿元, 相当于2001—2013 年期间健康损失总和的54%。其中, 中东部8 个省份和2013 年1 月的持续重污染是2013 年健康损失显著增加的主要原因。

关键词: 重污染天, PM2.5, 健康影响, 经济损失

CLC Number: