Abstract: Remote sensing images of 2000, 2004 and 2010 are interpreted for analysis of temporal and spatial change of land use/cover. The result reveals that the total area is in dynamic change and the main land use/cover type has been changed from saline to cultivated land in the Yellow River Delta. There has been a rapid growth in urban land and rural residential land during 2000?2010. By using Logistic regression, conclusion is drawn that six geographical factors including elevation, slope, distance to the nearest reservoir, town, river and major road and 4 social and economic factors including population density, gross domestic product, fiscal revenue, and total industrial output are the main driving factors of land use/cover change in the Yellow River Delta. In addition, regional planning has a significant impact on land use/cover change by designating prohibited development areas.

Key words: Yellow River Delta, LUCC, driving force, Logistic regression, CLUE-S model

摘要： 通过解译2000, 2004和2010年三期遥感影像, 从结构变化、转移矩阵和土地利用程度3个方面分析研究黄河三角洲土地利用/覆盖变化时空特征。结果表明: 10年间黄河三角洲总面积处于动态变化过程中, 主要土地利用/覆盖类型由盐碱地转变为耕地, 城镇用地与农村居民点用地增长迅速, 土地利用程度不断增加。运用Logistic回归分析土地利用/覆盖变化与区域自然、社会经济驱动因素间的定量关系, 同时探究区域规划对土地利用/覆盖变化的影响, 以CLUE-S模型进行模拟验证。结果表明: 海拔、坡度、至最近水库、城镇、河流、主要道路距离6个地理因素以及人口密度、地区生产总值(GDP)、财政收入、工业总产值4个社会经济因素是引起研究区土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动因素, 区域规划以划定禁止开发的自然保护区的方式对土地利用/覆盖变化产生显著影响。

关键词: 黄河三角洲, 土地利用/覆盖变化, 驱动因素, Logistic回归, CLUE-S模型