Abstract: Because of the motor vehicle emissions high contribution on atmospheric air pollution in Beijing, the vehicle control policies need to be shift with the target of emission reduction. Based on the analysis of Beijing motor vehicle composition and pollution contribution, this paper presents the measure of phasing out high-emission vehicles. This measure directly controls the high-emission vehicles which have contributed most motor vehicle pollution, to maximize the environmental effects while controlling the same amount of vehicles. Comparing this measure with the measures of “controlling the new vehicles increasing” and “driving restriction”, the measure of phasing out high-emission vehicles has the highest cost-effectiveness ratio and it has significance effect in Beijing air pollution controlling and in achieving the twelfth “five years” NOx emission reduction targets. Considering the factors of the damage cost of the high-emission cars, the willingness to accept (WTA) of the owners of the phased cars, the incentive direction of the subsidies and the government budget, the authors propose that the subsidy standard would be a single one and the level of subsidy should be about 4000?6000 yuan per vehicle. Phasing out high-emission vehicles has multiple advantages: reflecting the cost-effectiveness of policy design, reflecting the policy direction of being responsible for the environment and the incentive effects of economical instruments.

Key words: phase out, high-emission vehicles, cost effectiveness, single subsidy

摘要： 鉴于机动车排放对北京市大气污染贡献较大, 需以污染物减排为目标调整机动车控制政策。基于北京市机动车构成和污染贡献率的分析, 作者提出优先淘汰高污染排放车辆的措施。该项措施的调控对象是机动车中污染贡献最大的车辆, 与控制其他车辆相比, 该措施可以在控制同等车辆数的情况下实现更大的环境效果。与“控制新增车辆”和“每周限行一天”措施的对比分析显示, 优先淘汰高排放车辆措施具有更大的NOx减排潜力, 对控制北京市大气污染及实现“十二五”NOx减排目标具有重要意义。综合考虑车主受偿意愿、机动车污染损害成本、淘汰补贴政策的激励方向以及政府的资金预算约束等方面, 提出综合的政策建议, 并建议采取单一的淘汰补贴标准, 补贴水平应在4000~6000元/辆。优先淘汰高排放车辆政策的优势可以概括为: 体现公共政策为环境负责的政策走向, 体现政策设计的费用有效性, 以及充分发挥经济手段的激励性等。

关键词: 优先淘汰, 高排放车辆, 费用有效性, 单一补贴