Abstract: Comparing with other traditional approaches like the probability statistics method and the multi-criteria decision-making method, this paper discusses the applicability and relative merits of the Information Diffusion Model (IDM). It reveals that the IDM is a straightforward approach with a definite result requiring fewer data, which meets the requirement of disaster risk assessment and has significant value for decision. Therefore, the IDM is wildly used in the natural disaster risk assessment, especially in the case of limited samples or unknown probability distributions. However, the IDM is limited in describing the comprehensive aspect of the disaster risk, and some detailed rules should be clarified further when putting the model into practice. In order to improve the IDM method, extend the range of IDM’s applicability, and provide an approach for comprehensive disaster risk assessment, this paper puts forward a scenario-based IDM by combining the scenario analysis method with the traditional IDM method.

Key words: information diffusion model, natural disasters, comprehensive risk assessment, scenario analysis

摘要： 通过对比信息扩散模型与概率统计、指标体系等常用方法, 归纳了信息扩散模型应用于灾害风险的适用性与优缺点。信息扩散模型具有可操作性强、数据需求较小、评价结果意义明确等优势, 符合灾害风险评价的要求且具有决策价值, 因而被广泛运用于自然灾害风险评估, 尤其是概率分布未知或样本量较少的情况下。但信息扩散模型在使用过程中仍存在部分问题有待进一步厘清, 并且模型在描述综合风险方面存在一定的局限。为此, 在明晰信息扩散模型特征的基础上, 引入情景分析方法, 构建了基于情景的信息扩散模型, 以期扩展信息扩散模型的适用范围, 为实现综合灾害风险评价提供方法参考。

关键词: 信息扩散模型, 自然灾害, 综合风险评估, 情景分析