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Prediction of HFC-23 Emission and Analysis of CDM Project Impact in China

FENG Jinmin1, YAN Huanghuang2, ZHANG Boya3, ZHANG Jianbo2   

  1. 1. Center for Compute, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 3. School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191;
  • Received:2011-04-06 Online:2012-03-20 Published:2012-03-20

中国HFC-23排放预测与CDM项目的影响分析

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  1. 1. 北京大学计算中心, 北京 100871; 2. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京100871; 3. 北京大学公共卫生学院, 北京 100191;

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Abstract: Based on the analysis of HCFC-22 consumption in China, the trend of HCFC-22 production and HFC-23 emission was predicted. It was dwelled upon that the increase of HCFC-22 production was rational, which steam from development of some related sectors in China. Also the abatement effect of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project is demonstrated. The result shows that annual reduction effect of CDM project amount to 66.79×106 tons CO2-eq. However, predicted yield of HFC-23 would be 1.6×104 tons in 2015, with 6×103 tons would be destroyed by CDM project, and the emission would reach 1×104 tons which equal to 120×106 CO2-eq. Furthermore, each stakeholder’s standpoint to HFC-23 CDM and how to control HFC-23 emission were discussed.

Key words: HCFC-22, demand, green house gas, clean development mechanism (CDM), HFC-23, abatement

摘要： 基于我国HCFC-22的消费需求, 预测了我国HCFC-22生产量的变化趋势和相应的HFC-23的排放量, 阐述了我国HCFC-22产量增长是源于经济发展和相关行业的消费需求不断增加, 因而生产增长是合理的; 估算了我国HFC-23潜在排放量以及实施清洁发展机制(CDM)项目对减排温室气体产生的效果。计算结果表明, 我国实施的HFC-23分解CDM项目年减排量为6679万吨CO2-eq, 预计到2015年, 我国年产出HFC-23约1.6万吨, 通过CDM项目销毁6000吨, 占产出量的36%, 大约排放1万吨, 即仍然存在1.2亿吨CO2-eq的减排空间。此外还分析了国际社会各方对HFC-23减排CDM项目的立场和对策。

关键词: HCFC-22, 需求, 温室气体, 清洁生产机制, HFC-23, 减排

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