Abstract: An integrated methodology framework was proposed to acknowledge the important role of cumulative environmental assessment (CEA) in the strategic environmental assessment of regional development plan (RDP). The developed CEA framework consisted of nine steps, including (a) analysis of regional development plan, (b) identification of environmental responses, (c) determination of CEA scales, (d) network analysis of pressures and responses, (e)baselines for CEA, (f) scenarios development, (g) cumulative assessment and early warning, (h) mitigative measures of environmental consequences, and (i) adaptive management. Scenario analysis and system dynamic (SD) models were integrated to deal with the uncertainties and dynamics in the RDP system. The cumulative environmental consequences at various temporal and spatial scales were assessed using the integrated models. The RDP of Zhengzhou Airport Zone (ZZAZ) was taken as a case and its CEA and early warning for regional air and ground water was carried out. Four scenarios were proposed after the comprehensive of ZZAZ’s RDP and the identification of environmental consequences. System dynamic model was developed for temporal and spatial CEA, combined with air and water mechanistic models. Several strategies were proposed based on CEA results to mitigate the consequences, including (a) adjustment of spatial ecological patterns at regional scale, (b) optimization of regional industries structure, (c) pollution control, and (d) adaptive management.

Key words: cumulative environmental assessment, strategic environmental assessment, scenario analysis, Zhengzhou Airport Zone

摘要： 鉴于累积环境影响评价在区域规划环评中的重要性和必要性, 提出包括规划描述、影响识别、尺度确定、因果分析、评价基准、情景构建、累积评价与预警、减缓措施以及适应调控等主要步骤在内的累积环境影响评价方法框架。同时, 考虑到累积环境影响的不确定性和动态性特征,采用情景分析和系统动力学模型相结合的方法, 模拟、分析和评价区域规划在时间和空间尺度上的累积环境影响。基于该方法框架,以郑州航空港地区总体规划为例,开展了评价区域环境空气和地表水环境质量的累积环境影响评价和预警实证研究。设计了基准情景、零方案情景、规划方案情景以及改善型情景 4 种情景模式, 分别对规划方案实施的区域水环境、大气环境的累积影响做出评价;并提出包括生态空间格局调控优化、产业结构调控与布局优化以及污染防治等在内的减缓措施,以及跟踪监测评估与适应性反馈调控对策。

关键词: 累积环境影响评价, 规划环评, 情景分析, 郑州航空港地区