Abstract: The authors analyzed the relative economic performances as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) among 18 districts in Beijing between 1993-2002 and 2005-2007. The statistical models use a traditional shift-share analysis evaluated with SPSS software. District competitiveness was decomposed into ten selected factors, including resource utility and environmental quality. The results indicate that, between 1993-2002, districts in the city-center were more competitive than districts in the suburbs. After 2005, suburban districts increased their competitiveness at a faster rate than those in the city. In addition, the authors try to identify the driving forces of economic growth in Beijing. Five factors were found to have a significant impact on GDP competitiveness of 18 districts in Beijing; finance income, employment density, average wages, and air quality all had positive effects, while population density had a negative effect. These results will be useful for planning future economic growth and specialization for districts around Beijing.

Key words: competitiveness, GDP, shift-share analysis, Beijing

摘要： 应用传统偏离份额分析法, 对北京市 18 个区县1993?2002年和2005?2007年的经济发展状况进行了比较分析;应用 SPSS统计分析方法, 构建了 18 个区县经济竞争力与其影响因子之间的计量模型。结果表明, 1993?2002 年间, 城八区经济竞争力高于郊区县。2005 年后, 郊区县经济竞争力的增长高于城八区。各区县经济竞争力与财政收入、就业、大气环境质量和人均工资成正比, 与人口成反比。这些计量模型可为北京市及各区县政府通过政策工具, 合理调整 自身产业结构, 实现区域可持续发展提供依据。

关键词: 竞争力, GDP, 偏离份额分析, 北京市