Abstract: The authors take a research on hazard zonation of debris flows based on GIS in Xiuyan County of Anshan City, Liaoning Province. Due to the uncertainty of the research on debris flows, the authors adopt the approach of certainty factors to research hazard zonation for debris flows. The graphs of hazard distribution and correlative affecting factors are obtained by digitizing and spatial analyzing the investigation data of geologic hazard of Xiuyan County. Then the unique-condition units are derived through overlying the graphs. CF values from each group of data are calculated and then they are used in logistic regression to set up the hazard evaluation model of debris flows in Xiuyan County. The graph of the hazard zonation of debris flows is obtained by using this model. This method proves to show the characters of the hazard of debris flows well by testing the hazard point data.

Key words: debris flow, Xiuyan County, certainty factors, logistic regression model, hazard zonation

摘要： 利用GIS技术, 以辽宁省鞍山市岫岩满族自治县为例, 针对泥石流灾害研究过程中的不确定性, 应用确定因子法对泥石流灾害危险性区划进行研究。基于岫岩县地质灾害调查资料, 借助 GIS 的数字化、空间分析等功能, 获得泥石流灾害点分布图及其影响因子图, 进而利用叠置分析获得按均一条件单元划分的研究区图。根据确定因子法计算每一数据类对应的 CF 值, 然后采用逻辑回归模型进行分析, 建立岫岩县泥石流危险性评价模型, 利用该模型进行危险性分析, 得到岫岩县泥石流危险性区划图。经过灾害点数据 的效果检验, 证明本方法能够较好地反映泥石流灾害区域危险性特征。

关键词: 泥石流, 岫岩县, 确定因子法, 逻辑回归模型, 危险性区划