Abstract: This paper constructed the SLCP-SL framework and used the Matching DID ( difference in difference) regression models to analyze SLCP’s net effect on households’sustainable livelihood. The survey was conducted by Environmental Economics Study Group in Peking University in 2004, and two cross section data sets of 1999 and 2003 were obtained. The short analysis of income implicates that: SLCP reduce households’crop income significantly; livestock breeding and forest production income have no significant increase; off-farm working increased households’income a lot but without significant proof of cause-effect by SLCP. In long term, the SL assets are the most important factors determining SL capability; however which are still very poor in western China. So, in the further policy design and implementing of SLCP, government should focus on improving households’SL assets but not only subsidize them directly.

Key words: sloping land conversion program, sustainable livelihood, income, assets

摘要： 构建“退耕还林可持续生计分析框架”。利用北京大学环境经济与政策小组2004 年在宁夏和贵州获取的调研数据, 采用匹配倍差法( matching difference in difference regression) 等计量经济模型, 识别退耕还林工程实施对农户可持续生计的净影响。短期的收入分析表明, 退耕还林对农户的种植业收入产生显著的负面影响;林业和养殖业短期内难以成为替代收入来源;外出务工收入明显增加, 但退耕还林在其中发挥的直接促进作用不显著。长期来看, 资产积累是决定农户生计状况和发展最重要的指标, 但 目前中国西部贫困地区人力、物质、自然、社会和资金5 种生计资产较低, 制约了生计能力的提高。因此, 为了促使农户可持续生计的获得及发展, 保障政策效果和可持续性, 新一轮的退耕还林政策除了实施直接补助外, 需要更加关注农户资产和生计能力的加强。

关键词: 退耕还林, 可持续生计, 收入, 生计资产