Abstract: This study investigated the consumptions of HCFC-22 from 1989 to 2007 in China according to the end-use data from HCFC-22 related sectors including air-conditioning, industrial and commercial refrigerant, foam and chemical sectors, and calculated the HCFC-22 emissions from the correspondent sectors by using the bottom-up approach. In line with the accelerating process of HCFCs phaseout schedule and the development plan of related sector in China, the consumptions and emissions of HCFC-22 were estimated for the next 20 year. These results can be used for China’s phaseout plan of HCHF-22.

Key words: emission prediction , HCFC-22, air-conditioning, industrial and commercial refrigerant

摘要： 根据1989?2007年我国相关行业的历史数据, 计算出我国房间空调行业、工商制冷行业、泡沫行业和化工行业等终端用途 HCFC-22 的消费清单, 并使用自下而上法对各行业 HCFC-22 的排放量进行了计算。根据第五条款国加速淘汰 HCFCs 进程表和我国相关行业的发展趋势, 预测了我 国未来 20 年 HCFC-22 的消费量和排放量, 为我国履行 《蒙特利尔议定书》提供依据。

关键词: 排放预测, HCFC-22, 房间空调, 工商制冷