Abstract: Based on the land-use maps and socio-economic statistical data, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, together with the integration of spatial and temporal analysis were used to analyze the driving forces of Changping district, Beijing, in 1996-2004. By spatial analysis, three kinds of driving factors including natural factors, population factors and economic development factors were selected. The logistic regression concludes the following. First, the increments of non-agricultural population, the production value of the second industry class, and the distance from rivers are the main driving forces of the conversion from arable land to construction land. Second, the interchanges between different types of agricultural land are mainly influenced by natural factors, such as gradient, altitude and distance from river. Third, the city expansion and variety of industry distribution are worthy of more attention when considering interchanges of different construction land. Last, socio-economic factors play more important role in the conversion from arable land to construction land and are overwhelmed by natural factors for the opposite conversion. By temporal analysis, the population increase, economy development and relative policies have great influences on land use change through qualitative analysis. A positive logarithm correlation coefficient is acquired between the construction land areas and GDP, while a negative one between arable land areas and non-agricultural population. The policy aiming to adjustment of agriculture structure promote the conversion from arable land to garden and forest land, meanwhile, the conversion from arable, garden, country resident land to spare land is driven by the arable land withdrawal policy.

Key words: land use change, edge of metropolis, driving force, spatial variation, temporal variation, Changping district

摘要： 基于GIS和数理统计分析，以北京市昌平区为例，采用1996-2004年土地利用数据和基础地理信息数据，将定性分析与定量分析结合、空间分析与时间分析结合起来研究影响土地利用变化的驱动机制。在空间上，利用Logistic回归分析，从自然因素、人口增长和经济发展3个角度选取与土地利用变化相关的驱动因子。分析结果表明：耕地与建设用地间的转换，主要与非农业人口增量、第二产业产值和河流远近有关；农用地类型间的转换主要受坡度、海拔和距河流远近等自然因素的影响；建设用地类型间的转换主要由城市化和产业布局的变化引起；农用地向建设用地的转换则主要受社会经济因素的影响；建设用地向农用地的转换主要受自然因素的影响。在时间上，通过定性分析，发现研究区土地利用变化主要与人口的增长、经济的发展以及政策驱动直接相关，城镇建设用地面积与非农业人口和GDP之间呈现良好的对数正相关，耕地面积与非农业人口和GDP之间呈现良好的对数负相关，农业结构调整政策是耕地向园地、林地的流转的主要驱动力，生态退耕政策则是耕地、园地、农村居民点用地和未利用地转换成为林地的重要驱动因素。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 大城市边缘区, 驱动力, 空间分异, 时间分异, 昌平区