Abstract: Based on years collected population inform ation of Giant Panda in Qinling Mountains, a mechanical stochastic model was built to simulate the dynamic of wild panda population in Qinling, as well as this populations viability analysis. The model results shows that the panda population in Qinling has positive growth potential. The minimum viable population size, which defined in this article is the population last for 200 years with no more than 5% extinct possibilities, is 28～30 individuals. The extinct possibility will inc rease because of population demographic stochastic factors, if the initial popula tion size is lower than 28～30. With the influence of density dependant factors, the minimum population size is 50～60, and the density independent factor's affect should not higher than 1% per year. According to the current population size of Qinling, the current panda population's extinct possibility caused by demographic stochastic is low, and it is able to sustain for a long time if its environment could be kept as current or get better.

Key words: giant panda, stochastic model, population viability analysis, Qinling

摘要： 以对秦岭野生大熊猫多年研究的资料，建立了一个机理性的随机模型，并用此模型对秦岭大熊猫种群进行了种群动态的模拟。分析了该种群的存活力，结果显示：秦岭大熊猫种群具有正的增长潜力；在环境维持现状的情况下，秦岭大熊猫种群以小于5%的灭绝概率维持200年所需的最小种群规模为28～30只，低于此数值，由于种群统计学随机性，种群会有较高的灭绝概率；在密度制约因素的影响下，种群维持需要50～60只个体；在非密度制约因素的影响下，每年由种群中减少的个体不应超过种群数量的1%。结合秦岭目前大熊猫种群的实际数量，秦岭的大熊猫种群由于种群统计学随机性而发生灭绝的可能性很小，如果能够在保证现有的环境状况不恶化，并且能够逐步恢复的前提下，秦岭的野生大熊猫种群是可以维持的。

关键词: 大熊猫, 随机性模型, 种群存活力分析, 秦岭