Based on six periods of landslide inventory data in Yunnan Province from 1986 to 2016, a weighted information value-logistic regression (WIV-LR) model integrated with geodetector was developed, and the spatio-temporal evolution of the resulting landslide susceptibility maps was analyzed. The results indicate that: 1) WIV-LR model demonstrated good predictive performance for all six periods, with AUC values ranging from 0.781 to 0.873. 2) The spatio-temporal evolution of landslide susceptibility exhibited clear and systematic patterns, characterized by a continuous expansion of high-susceptibility areas (with their proportion increasing from 35.52% to 50.27%), a concentration of high-susceptibility zones in western, central, and southern Yunnan, and a regular migration of the susceptibility centroid, showing a southward shift, followed by an eastward movement and a subsequent return toward the northwest. 3) Geodetector analysis revealed the driving mechanisms underlying these evolutionary patterns, indicating that the most influential factors exhibited stage-dependent characteristics, with seismic intensity playing a dominant role during the T1 period, rainfall exerting a stronger influence during the T4 period, and the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant in later periods. 4) The spatio-temporal evolution of landslide susceptibility exhibited a high degree of consistency with the dynamic changes in key influencing factors. These findings provide a scientific reference for the dynamic identification and prevention of landslide risks in regions characterized by similarly complex geological environments.

基于1986—2016年云南省6期滑坡数据, 构建一个融合地理探测器的加权信息量–逻辑回归模型(WIV-LR), 并对生成的 6 期易发性评价结果进行时空演化分析, 得到如下结果。1) WIV-LR模型对各期滑坡数据均表现出良好的预测性能(AUC=0.781~0.873); 2) 滑坡易发性的时空演化呈现清晰的规律性, 风险面积持续扩张(高易发区占比从35.52%增至50.27%), 高度集聚于滇西、滇中和滇南, 且风险重心呈现南移–东移–回归西北的规律性迁移; 3) 地理探测器分析结果揭示, 上述演化的驱动机制如下: 关联最显著的影响因子具有阶段性演化特征(如T1期震级影响突出, T4期降雨量影响增强), 且后期人类活动影响加剧; 4) 滑坡易发性的时空演化与关键影响因子的动态变化过程表现出高度一致性。研究结果可为类似复杂地质环境区域的滑坡风险动态识别与防控提供科学参考。