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Spatial Simulation of Agricultural Land Use Change Based on Agent-Based Model: A Case Study of Tongdu Town, Dongchuan District in Kunming City
YANG Weishi, DAI Erfu, WU Jiansheng, ZHANG Hui, XING Zhaoting, FAN Fan, WANG Hongliang, GUAN Yufeng, CHEN Feng, CHEN Minglei
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis 2025, 61 (
5
): 976-986. DOI:
10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.073
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This study focuses on Tongdu Town in Dongchuan District, Kunming City, and constructs a model for agricultural land use change based on human-environment interactions using an agent-based model. By utilizing census data, geographical environmental data, and field survey data, the study simulates the spatially distinct processes of agricultural labor, annual income of farming households, and agricultural land use changes in Tongdu Town from 2010 to 2015. The result shows that changes in agricultural land use are strongly correlated with labor, household income, and slope, but less so with soil fertility. Approximately 63.35% of agricultural land use changes occurred among low-income farming households, particularly the conversion of farmland to grassland — 87.60% of this specific conversion took place in low-income households. The transition from farmland to forest predominantly occurred in areas with relatively higher population densities and steeper slopes. The simulation model demonstrated excellent performance, with a spatial accuracy of 92.23%. The method developed for simulating agricultural land use changes in this study can offer valuable references for other regions, and thus provide scientific support for the implementation of ecological conservation, rural revitalization, and other related projects in China.
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Risk Assessment on Food Crops Supply-Demand Balance under Climate Change in China
ZHOU Qiaofu,DAI Erfu,WU Shaohong,PAN Tao,CHEN Xiwei
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Recurrence Quantification Analysis for Geographical Differences of the Coupling Relationship between NDVI and Climatic Factors
LI Shuangcheng,LIU Fengyuan,DAI Erfu,WU Shaohong
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis
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1342
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Recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) and cross recurrence plot (CRP) are used to analyze the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climatic factors in the Southwest and Southeast Monsoon Regions in Yunnan longitudinal range-gorge region (LRGR). Results show that in the Southwest Monsoon Region the NDVI series has a higher certainty than that in the Southeast Monsoon Region. The coupling relationships of NDVI series in the two regions are between a completely random series and a deterministic series with noise. The two NDVI series have low synchronization in general, especially in the period 1987?1989 and 1991?1993. The NDVI series of the Southwest Monsoon Region lags behind that of the Southeast Monsoon Region. According to the CRP indices, the similarity, persistence time and stability of the coupling relationship between NDVI and precipitation series in the Southwest Monsoon Region are better than that of the Southeast Monsoon Region. Both the NDVI series and temperature series have similar trends. However, the difference of the CRP indices between the two regions is smaller. It is suggested that the interaction pattern of NDVI and temperatures has a smaller difference between the two regions.
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Systematic Analysis and Assessment on Sustainable Land Use
DAI Erfu,CAI Yunlong,FU Zeqiang
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis
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Being sustainable both on spatial and temporal dimensions, sustainable land use system is a typically complicated system composed by natural, social and economical components, which has special attributes of systematic complication, structural openness, spatio-temporal dynamics and multi-objects. Driving Force-State-Response analysis method is useful to probe into multi-act and dynamics of its components. Sustainability assessment is the core to sustainable land use study. In this paper, the authors apply Driving Force-State-Response analysis method to construct assessing indicator system, which can be classified into
status quo
and response indicators, composed by natural, social, economical and technical aspects. Then the authors design assessing process on sustainable land use. At last, the indicator system and process are applied in Tangshan Region from 1991 to 1999. The results show that the general sustainable degree of land use in the study case has been rising, which is resulted from great economic growth and natural cost.
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