Analysis of Vulnerable Characteristics in Chinese Northern Farming-Pastoral Region Based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

doi:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.123

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the grid data set of temperature and precipitation of China (0.5°×0.5°) and the output of coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) East Asia, including the climate prediction based on RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, the authors simulate and analyze vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region from 1980 to 2100 with temperature, precipitation and maximum near-surface wind speed. The results show that the ecologically vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region increases during 2006-2100, especially after 2050, the increase speed rises rapidly. By the end of 21st century, almost all the Chinese northern farming-pastoral region shows at least obvious vulnerability. Said on the space, the vulnerability is severe from Zhongwei to north of Hohhot, however, it’s better in north Great Khingan.

Key words: Chinese northern farming-pastoral region, vulnerability, coordinated regional downscaling experi-ment (CORDEX)

摘要：

基于中国地面降水和气温0.5°×0.5°格点数据集以及区域协同降尺度试验东亚地区项目组RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来气候预估数据, 对中国北方农牧交错带1980—2100年的气候脆弱性进行模拟和分析。结果表明, 北方农牧交错带气候脆弱性在未来的100年中整体上呈现增大的趋势, 特别是2050年后, 增大速度进一步加剧, 到21世纪末, 几乎整个北方农牧交错带都表现出明显脆弱性。从宁夏中卫到呼和浩特北部一带, 脆弱性形势较为严峻, 而大兴安岭北部地区脆弱性程度较低。

关键词: 中国北方农牧交错带, 脆弱性, 区域协同降尺度实验

Yimin ZHOU, Ang ZHANG, Xinyi ZHAO. Analysis of Vulnerable Characteristics in Chinese Northern Farming-Pastoral Region Based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(6): 1099-1107.

周一敏, 张昂, 赵昕奕. 未来气候变化情景下中国北方农牧交错带脆弱性评估[J]. 北京大学学报自然科学版, 2017, 53(6): 1099-1107.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1 Sketch map of northern farming-pastoral region

Table 1 Basic information of 5 regional climate models

区域气候模式	全球气候模式	历史数据集	未来情景数据		每年天数
区域气候模式	全球气候模式	历史数据集	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	每年天数
HadGEM-RA	HadGEM2-AO	1950—2005年	2006—2010年	2006—2010年	360
MM5	HadGEM2-AO	1979—2005年	2006—2049年	2006—2035年	365/366
RegCM4	HadGEM2-AO	1979—2005年	2006—2050年	2006—2050年	360
RSM	HadGEM2-AO	1980—2005年	2006—2050年	2006—2050年	360
WRF	HadGEM2-AO	1981—2005年		2006—2049年	365/366

Table 2 Ecological vulnerability degree index

Eco取值范围	脆弱程度
Eco<1.0	非脆弱性
1.0 ≤ Eco<1.5	潜在脆弱性
1.5 ≤ Eco<3.0	明显脆弱性
3.0 ≤ Eco	极端脆弱性

Fig. 2 Average temperature and precipitation of northern farming-pastoral region

Fig. 3 26 year average Eco index of northern farming-pastoral region

Fig. 4 Eco index from 1980 to 2100 of 5 regional climate models

Fig. 5 Eco index of 5 regional climate models in RCP4.5

Fig. 6 Eco index of 5 regional climate models in RCP8.5

Fig. 7 Eco index of 5 regional climate models in history

Fig. 8 Eco index of 5 regional climate models difference with the average Eco from 1980 to 2005 in RCP4.5

Fig. 9 Eco index of 5 regional climate models difference with the average Eco from 1980 to 2005 in RCP8.5

Fig. 10 Eco index of CMA and 5 regional climate models in RCP4.5

Fig. 11 Eco index of CMA and 5 regional climate models in RCP8.5

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