Abstract: Taking technology system of municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment and disposal in China as a case, Mento-Carlo numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis are studied in several typical scenarios by using the material flow and economy optimization model constructed previously. The simulation results show that, under the general condition, sanitary landfill with leachate re-circulation and power generation is supported by the model as the economically optimal technology, and the five main elements (C, H, O, N, S) will go to recycle, landfill and biogas. With the assumption of high landfill price, the pickup frequency of MSW separation at facilities as the optimal technology system is 70%. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the power generation profit of biogas, the cost of sanitary landfill, large-scale power generation cost of separated MSW, and the cost of large-scale grate furnace are the most sensitive parameters for the decision making of technology.

Key words: technology decision making, sensitivity analysis, municipal solid waste (MSW), material flow and economy, optimization model, Mento-Carlo method

摘要： 以我国城市生活垃圾处理处置技术体系为案例，通过经济性分析，利用已建立的物质流与经济性综合评价最优化模型，对不同情景进行了蒙特卡罗法数值模拟，并进行了参数的灵敏度分析。结果表明，在一般条件下，家庭物质回收和二次物质回收后，采用沼气发电和渗滤液回灌的卫生填埋对垃圾进行处置是模型建议采用的处理处置技术体系，此时生活垃圾中的C，H，O，N，S 5种元素的最终流向主要为回收利用部分、填埋体部分和填埋气部分。在填埋费用昂贵条件下，家庭物质回收和二次物质回收后，对垃圾进行分选，分别进行焚烧、堆肥和填埋的选择频率达到70％，是模型选择的经济性最优处理处置技术体系。灵敏度分析表明，分选垃圾的沼气发电收益，卫生填埋费用，分选垃圾大型发电费用，大型炉排炉费用，卫生填埋发电收益等参数对技术政策选择影响最大。

关键词: 灵敏度分析, 城市生活垃圾, 物质流与经济性, 最优化模型, 蒙特卡罗法, 技术政策