Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

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Prediction and Its Verification of Strong El Nino Event in 1997

WEI Songlin   

  1. Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin, 150030
  • Received:2000-10-25 Online:2001-01-20 Published:2001-01-20



  1. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所,哈尔滨,150030

Abstract: The ENI of El Nino events is expressed by using differences of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the area of equatorial east Pacific (0~10°S, 90~180°W). Based on ENI's definition, 25 El Nino events and 26 La Nina events from 1870 to 2000 are defined. And the starting and ending time of 1997's strong El Nino event is predicted six months ahead of the event by using ENI's Three Periodical Overlapping Prediction method. The prediction offers great support to the accurate prediction of the flush flood occurred along Nenjiang river in 1998.

Key words: ENI, spectrum analysis, verification of prediction, 2001's prediction

摘要: 使用赤道东太平洋(0°~10°S,90°~180°W)海水表面温度(SST)距平值表征厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件指数(ENI)。根据ENI定义出1870-2000年期间25次厄尔尼诺事件和26次拉尼娜事件,采用ENI三周期叠加预报模式提前6个月预测出1997年强厄尔尼诺事件的开始和结束时间,为较准确预测出1998年嫩江特大洪水提供了预报依据。

关键词: ENI指数, 谱分析, 预报检验, 2001年预报

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