Abstract: Emission inventory of HCFC-141b in China was established based on the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006). Constitution and trend of HCFC-141b emission was analyzed. The product retire emission, which considered to be the largest part of emission, accounts for 48.7% of the total; under Montreal Protocol Phaseout Schedule (MPPS) and Accelerated Phaseout Schedule (APS) scenarios, total ODP emission reduction would be 7.30×10⁴ tons and 7.46×10⁴ tons ODP and GHG emission reduction would be 4.7317×10⁸ tons and 4.8381×10⁸ tons CO₂-eq respectively during 2010-2030; compared to the MPPS scenario, the APS scenario result in additional 3.815×10⁷ tons CO₂-eq GHG emission reduction during HCFC-141b emission period and most of the reduction comes from refrigerator, water heater insulation and panel sub-sector. China makes great contribution on global GHGs reduction during the implementation of Montreal Protocol.

Key words: emission, prediction, controlled scenarios, green house gas (GHG), HCFC-141b

摘要： 基于IPCC《国家温室气体清单优良作法指南(2006)》建立中国HCFC-141b排放清单, 分析计算中国HCFC-141b的排放构成和排放趋势。退役排放构成中国HCFC-141b排放的主要部分, 占总排放量的48.7%; 在蒙特利尔议定书控制淘汰(MPPS)情景和加速淘汰(APS)情景下, 2010?2030年分别累计减排量为7.30万t和7.46万t ODP, 相当于47317万t和48381万t CO₂-eq温室气体(GHG); 在APS情景下, 由于淘汰力度加强, 在HCFC-141b排放时段内, 相比MPPS情景进一步减排3815万t CO₂-eq GHG, 其中大部分减排量由冷藏保温、热水器保温和板材子源贡献。中国履行《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》不仅减少了ODS排放, 同时也减少了温室气体排放。

关键词: 预测, 控制情景, 温室气体, HCFC-141b, 排放量