Abstract: The model of Patch-dynamics was applied to simulate the land cover based on land change data. The results indicated that the percentage of arable land in total area will continue to descend while urban construction and forest land will ascend along time. The model of Patch-dynamics is better than traditional simple dynamics model in that it takes into a account the change process of simulation's object and interaction of different land use type. Compared with actual condition in 2001, the difference between the results of Patch-dynamics model and actual condition lies between 0 and 0.05 and has small difference for little percentage of land use type. The result makesclear that the model of Patch-dynamics can simulate the change condition of future scene. However, the model of Patch-dynamics can only apply to ten-year scale of land use change. The longer the simulation period, the more the simulation relative error. The conflict of land use should be harmonized, the urban green space should also be maintained, and some suggestions about land use and urban green space have been carried out.

Key words: land cover change, dynamics mechanism, Patch-dynamics model, Beijing

摘要： 利用北京市土地利用变化数据建立了Patch-dynamics 动力模型。模拟结果表明了在不同的时间尺度上耕地所占比例都持续下降，城镇建设用地、林地所占比例继续上升。由于该模式考虑了模拟对象的变化过程以及不同土地利用类型之间的相互影响，其模拟结果比一般的简单动力模型模拟效果好。通过与实际情况的比较检验，用1996年数据对2001年的模拟结果与实际差别不大，误差在0～0.05之间，对于面积较小地类的模拟误差较小，说明这个方法可以用来对未来的土地利用变化状况进行模拟、预测。然而，这个模型只适应于十年尺度的预测，模拟时间越长，误差越大。在此基础上，提出协调土地利用矛盾，维持一定规模的城市绿色空间，实现首都城市定位目标的建议。

关键词: 土地覆被变化, 动力学机制, patch-dynamics模型, 北京市