Based on system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM), this paper analyzes the influence of environmental regulation on the GTFP (green total factor productivity) of 37 industries in China during the period of 2003–2015 by mearsuring the intermediate effect of liquidity ratio. The result shows that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GTFP among all industries was 6.8%. Technical development was the main contributor ameliorating GTFP. GTFP of industries above designated size goes upward and then downward in accordance with the stringency of environmental regulation. Short-term liquidity plays a role as intermediate variable, since it drops as environmental regulation gets sticter, which leads to a rise in GTFP of industries. When environmental regulation gets too strict for enterprises to comply with, their short-term liquidity ratio decreases significantly, which brings financial risks and leads to a reduction of GTFP. These conclusions are of great significance for government and enterprises to enact and comply with environmental and development strategies.

以2003—2015年我国37个工业行业为研究对象, 基于系统矩估计SYS-GMM方法, 以流动比率为企业短期偿债能力的表征指标, 定量分析其在环境规制影响绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)过程中的中介效应。结果表明, 我国工业全行业GTFP年均增长率为6.8%, 增长的主要驱动力是技术进步。环境规制对规模以上工业GTFP的影响呈先促进后抑制的趋势。企业短期偿债能力在其中起到部分中介作用, 环境规制增强导致企业流动比率降低, GTFP提升, 但规制过强时企业短期偿债能力大幅下降, 带来财务风险, 导致GTFP降低。研究结果加深了对环境规制影响对绿色全要素生产率机制的认识, 对政府和企业制定环境和发展对策具有重要意义。