Abstract: This study tested the effects of goal setting, prior gain or loss as well as the distribution of decision reference points (status quo, goal and minimum requirement) on dynamic decision making under risk, by using a four-stage simulated stock investment task. Results indicated that subjects in the“do your best”goal condition made less risky decisions than those in the specific goal condition. Individuals who had gained in the former investment took lower risk than those who had lost previously. The authors also found that minimum requirements had consistently significant effect on the risky decision making, while only in the last phase of investment could the goal-achieving take effect, which was called the“last struggle”effect.

Key words: dynamic decision making, goal-setting, multiple reference points

摘要： 采用四阶段的模拟股票投资任务, 考察了目标设置方式、先前获益或损失以及决策参照点(现状、目标和最低需求)的分布对动态风险决策的影响。结果发现尽力而为组的被试比给定目标组被试有更低的风险行为, 前次决策获益的个体比损失的个体在后一阶段投资中更为保守。研究还发现最低需求实现与否总是显著影响着个体的冒险行为,而目标实现与否仅在最后一轮的投资中发挥作用, 被称之为“最后一搏”效应。

关键词: 动态决策, 目标设置, 多参照点