Abstract: The authors put forward the concept of vulnerability of ecosystem services, and carries a case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area. The changes of ecosystem services were calculated from 2001 to 2009 in this region, and radial basis function network was used to assess the potential impacts of ecosystem services to land use change and the adaptive capacity of human-beings based on the 9 training data chosen from 164 counties. The results show that the average ecosystem services value of study area has declined 184.36 yuan/ha from 2001 to 2009, and the positive potential impacts of ecosystem services to future land use change declines from southeast to northwest, and the middle shows the least; the districts near big cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan have the best adaptive capacity, which has a positive correlation with GDP; and by integrating potential impacts and adaptive capacity, the study gives the spatial pattern of the vulnerability of ecosystem services: the districts near Bohai Sea turn out to be the least vulnerable; the plain in the southeast and mountains in the northwest are worse; and the districts near Taihang Mountains in the west are the most vulnerable. Of all the residents living in this region, 92.4% range between 2 to 4 in the classification of vulnerability.

Key words: vulnerability of ecosystem services, potential impact, adaptive capacity, radial basis function network, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area

摘要： 在定义生态系统服务脆弱性的基础上, 以京津冀地区为例, 计算2001?2009年区域内生态系统服务价值的变化。利用径向基函数网络, 选取9个县市作为训练数据, 对区域内164个县市(区)土地利用/覆被变化导致的潜在影响和人类的适应能力进行定量评价。评价结果表明, 京津冀地区2001?2009年生态系统服务供给呈下降趋势, 单位面积价值量降低184.36元/公顷; 未来土地利用/覆被变化对生态系统服务的潜在影响呈现东南?西北?中部正向影响递减, 而负向影响递增的格局。适应能力的评价结果表明, 北京、天津、唐山等较大城市及周边地区适应能力评价结果较优。将潜在影响与适应能力通过不同的组合类型得到的脆弱性分级表明, 京津冀地区生态系统服务的脆弱性格局为: 东部环渤海地区脆弱性程度较低, 东南平原地区与西北部森林山区次之, 西部太行山地区脆弱性程度较高。统计结果显示, 区域内92.4%的人口处于脆弱性分级2~4这一范围内。

关键词: 生态系统服务脆弱性, 潜在影响, 适应能力, 径向基函数网络, 京津冀地区