Abstract: A swarm model is designed based on the circular economy concept model and the important character that materials circulate around circuit, with the benefit of the multi-agent modeling for complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. The results of the swarm model indicate that producer-consumer agent in recycle world performs no longer periodical change rhythms, but reaches dynamic equilibrium at the stimulation time of 150 steps. The highest limit of carrying capacity from 0.06 to 0.20. Feedback between “producer" and “consumer" has to be well operated in order to keep the system stability. Compared with present world, it behaves as four factors including technology, production, market and society that impact the feasibility in developing the circular economy in investigating area. This research builds up a series of semi-quantized analyzing indexes based on these four factors, taking Baoan District which is a fast growing area in Shenzhen as a case study. The results suggest that it should develop the weakly-related circular economy system in recent years.

Key words: circular economy, feasibility evaluation, complex adaptive system, swarm simulation

摘要： 基于物质存在闭环流动这一循环经济的重要特征，借助复杂适应系统理论的多主体建模工具，设计了循环经济的Swarm仿真模型。模拟结果表明采用了循环经济模式的“recycle世界"中，生产-消费个体不再出现周期性变化规律，而是在仿真时间150个步长左右达到动态平衡，同时仿真世界对生产-消费个体的最高承载能力由0.06上升到0.20；而维持系统稳定性必须保证概念模型中从“消费者”到“生产者”的反馈有效运行，对应到现实世界，即影响区域发展循环经济的适宜性的主要因素表现在技术、产业、市场、社会4个方面。以深圳市宝安区这一经济快速发展的区域为例建立了一套基于上述4个因素的半定量化的评价指标，认为该区现阶段适宜于发展弱关联型循环经济体系。

关键词: 循环经济, 适宜性评价, 复杂适应系统, Swarm仿真