Abstract: By using a modified emergy-based ecological footprint model, the authors accounted and analyzed the changing processes of the per capita consumption ecological footprint and local output ecological carrying capacity in Guangdong Province from 1978 to 2006. Growth trend was found in both processes, and the growth rate of the output carrying capacity was higher than consumption ecological footprint. The authors researched the structural characteristics and trends of consumption ecological footprint and local output ecological carrying capacity accordingto the different accounts of biological resources, energy resources, industry, human resource and trade respectively. The growth of the non-biological resources consumption footprint was the most important part of the growth of total consumption, while the growth of product output carrying capacity also benefited from the second major industrial development. Extensive trade and the continuous improvement of human resources since reform and opening up policy were the major reasons for continuous improvement of carrying capacity in Guangdong Province.

Key words: emergy analysis, ecological footprint model, eco-economic system, sustainability, Guangdong Province

摘要： 采用基于能值改进的生态足迹模型, 考察了广东省1978?2006年人均消费足迹和人均产出承载力变化过程, 发现都是增长的过程, 且产出承载力的增长速度高于消费足迹增长。分别对生物资源账户、能源账户、工业账户、劳务和贸易账户进行分析, 研究消费足迹和产出承载力的结构特征以及变化趋势。消费总足迹的增长中, 非生物资源消费足迹占据了主要地位, 而产品产出承载力的增长也主要得益于第二产业的发展。30 年改革开放的制度变化, 广泛的区域分工以及产品贸易与流通, 人力资本的不断提升都是广东省承载力不断提升的重要原因。

关键词: 能值分析, 生态足迹, 生态经济系统, 可持续发展, 广东省