Abstract: A risk analysis model was established to predict Chinese aviation passenger ticket price changes from 2012 to 2020 due to the EU aviation carbon trading policy. Then the authors analyzed the impacts to aviation passenger transport fee, income, profits and carbon dioxide emissions, and discussed the influence on air travel and the airline industry. The results show that 1) the emission reduction caused by European Union (EU) aviation carbon trading policy is limited; 2) aviation passenger prices, airline fee, and carbon emission reduction would increase, and insufficient quota, income reduction, profit loss would be aggravated gradually. There would be 200 million loss till 2020.

Key words: EU aviation carbon trading, China aviation passenger transport, economic impacts, environmental impacts

摘要： 通过建立风险分析模型, 预测了实施欧盟航空碳交易政策后, 2012?2020年中国航空客运机票价格的变化, 分析该政策对中国航空客运收入、费用、利润以及客票价格变化和航空客运CO₂减排的影响。在此基础上, 探讨欧盟航空碳交易政策对中欧航空旅游及中国航空业竞争力的影响。结果表明: 1) 欧盟航空碳交易政策减排效果有限; 2) 政策实施将引起航空客运价格、航空费用、碳减排量逐年上升, 相应的碳排放配额不足、收入减少以及利润损失状况也将逐年加剧, 截至2020年, 将对中国航空业造成约2亿元的利润损失。

关键词: 欧盟航空碳交易, 中国航空客运, 经济影响, 环境影响