Abstract: An optimization model was developed for urban traffic environmental system based on passenger trip generating.Firstly, a System Dynamic model was built up to simulate the developing characteristics of urban passenger traffic system, as well as its environmental impacts. Secondly, a linear optimization model, with the objective of maximizing traffic efficiency under the resource and the environment constrains, was formed to search for the best trip assignment structure. Thirdly, several scenarios were designed based on the results of the two former models and amending effects were re-simulated. Finally, grey correlation assessment was utilized on the premise of social-economic support, feasible policy, minimized pressures on resource and environment, to select the optimized assignment structure. Acase study of Beijing wasfollowed andtheresults verified the mode's effectiveness.

Key words: urban passenger traffic environmental system, trip structure, system dynamics, linear optimization, scenario analysis, Beijing

摘要： 构建了基于出行结构的城市客运交通环境系统优化模型。在系统分析的基础上, 使用系统动力学方法模拟城市客运交通环境系统的发展;建立线性优化模型求解在城市的资源环境等约束条件下, 以交通综合效率最大化为目标的最优出行结构;根据二者的结果, 设计城市交通发展的不同情景, 进行二次模拟;建立灰色关联评价模型对情景分析结果进行综合评价, 在社会经济条件支撑、政策可行、资源环境压力最小化的前提下, 得到城市客运交通环境系统出行结构的优化结果。最后通过北京市的案例研究, 验证了模型的有效性。

关键词: 城市客运交通环境系统, 出行结构, 系统动力学, 线性优化, 情景分析, 北京