Abstract: A multidisciplinary approach is adopted in order to build the warning system of rainfall-triggered debris flows. The prediction is always the emphasis of research on debris flows. But because of the complex relationship between rainfall and debris flows there is not any universal method to do research on it. An approach based on logistic regression and antecedent effective rainfall is promoted. A warning system has been built combining with hazard zonation. And a computer system has been developed based on the platform of software MAPGIS. Depending on the integrated analysis of rainfall and geologic environmental factors, an automated partition method is promoted. Then the quantified automated prediction of rainfall-triggered debris flows is achieved. The system has been applied in Anshan, Liaoning Province.

Key words: debris flows, multi-information, warning system, logistic regression, antecedent effective rainfall

摘要： 将Logistic回归模型和前期有效降雨量引入到地质灾害预警领域，结合泥石流灾害危险性评价，形成了一整套较完善的泥石流灾害多元信息耦合预警体系，并基于MAPGIS平台经二次开发建立了泥石流灾害预警系统。在综合分析雨量和地质环境因素的基础上，提出了危险等级自动划分方法，从而实现了对泥石流等降雨诱发型地质灾害的定量化时空自动预报。基于该系统，在辽宁省鞍山市开展了泥石流灾害预警预报工作。

关键词: 泥石流, 多元信息, 预警系统, Logistic回归, 前期有效降雨量