Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis ›› 2016, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (3): 515-527.DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2016.032

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Economic and Environmental Effects of Improved Auto Fuel Economy Standard in China: A CGE Analysis

LIU Qing1, LIU Yu2, XU Jintao3   

  1. 1. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871
    2. Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
    3. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2015-03-09 Revised:2015-05-27 Online:2016-05-20 Published:2016-05-20
  • Contact: XU Jintao, E-mail: E-mail: xujt(at)

汽车尾气排放标准提高的经济影响与减排效果 —— 基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的分析

柳青1, 刘宇2, 徐晋涛3   

  1. 1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京100871
    2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京100190
    3. 北京大学国家发展研究院, 北京100871
  • 通讯作者: 徐晋涛, E-mail: E-mail: xujt(at)
  • 基金资助:


The authors use CHINAGEM, a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the economic effect and pollution reduction impacts of improved auto fuel economy standard in China. The policy change is modelled as shocks to production tax rate of two industries — petrol refine and motor vehicle parts. The results show that the shocks lead to higher labor cost, slightly decreased GDP and improved terms of trade. The majority of industries, such as motor vehicle manufacturing, will undergo downsizing because of new standards and substitution of imported motor vehicles for domestic ones. However, with improved emission standard and slowdown of vehicle production growth, air pollution problem will be alleviated. Based on the model prediction, the annual emission reductions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and total particulate matter amount to 39.52, 37.51, 11.63 and 1.66 million tons respectively, which are 32, 36, 63, and 87 percentage reduction from the respective business-as-usual levels.

Key words: CGE model, auto fuel economy standard, economic effect, emission reductions


基于一般均衡理论, 利用CHINAGEM模型, 对提高汽车尾气排放标准实施产生的经济和环境影响进行实证研究。通过调整汽油精炼和汽车零部件行业的生产税税率, 发现国Ⅳ、国Ⅴ新标准实施使得劳动力成本上升, GD 略有下降, 利于出口导向型行业发展。新标准一旦全面实施, 会抑制汽车制造等行业的整体发展, 国产车产量将有所下降, 从而增加进口汽车对国产汽车的替代。研究发现, 随着排放标准的提高以及汽车产量增速的减缓, 中国的大气污染问题会有所缓解。根据模型对载客汽车和载货汽车尾气排放污染物的预测, 新标准实施后2018 年的一氧化碳、碳氢化合物、氮氧化物和总颗粒物排放量分别减少3952.03, 3751.34, 1163.23 和166.27万吨, 减排比例分别达到32%, 36%, 63%和87%, 表明该政策的实施可以产生十分可观的减排效果。

关键词: CGE 模型, 汽车尾气排放标准, 经济影响, 减排效果

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