Abstract: Eight forecast factors of convective initiation (CI) are calculated by using IR1, IR2 and WV TBB of MTSAT-1R satellite data based on target clouds identification. The critical values of forecast factors are proposed in Beijing-Tianjin region, and the 17 days test of convective initiation forecast in Beijing-Tianjin region during 2006 and 2007 is carried out. Results of the test show that this method of CI forecast can well forecast the CI occurs in the next one hour. The method of CI forecast results evaluation is proposed base on the atmospheric motion vectors, and a statistical analysis of the CI forecast results is conducted. Statistical results show that this CI forecast method has good TS score of 0.545, high POD of 0.654 and low FAR of 0.435.

Key words: satellite data, convective initiation forecast, statistical evaluation

摘要： 利用MTSAT-1R卫星资料中的红外1、红外2和水汽通道亮温数据, 在目标云块识别对比的基础上计算对流初生(CI)预报的8个指标值。根据京津地区的实际情况, 给出修正后的预报指标阈值, 并对2006?2007年京津地区进行17日次对流初生预报实验。实验结果表明, 该预报方法能够对1小时内的对流初生现象进行有效预报。结合云导风矢量给出检验预报结果的方法, 对该预报方法的预报效果进行量化统计。统计结果表明, 该方法预报对流初生的TS (threat score) 评分为0.545, 检测概率(POD)为0.654, 空报率(FAR)为0.435。

关键词: 卫星资料, 对流初生预报, 效果评估